金吾财讯 | 铜矿股板块普涨，截至发稿，洛阳钼业（03993）涨3.54%，万国黄金集团（03939）涨3.03%，五矿资源（01208）涨2.94%，江西铜业股份（00358）涨1.48%，中国有色矿业（01258）涨1.20%，中国黄金国际（02099）涨0.96%，紫金矿业（02899）涨0.58%。消息面上，东吴证券研报表示，供给端矿端长期处于防御性资本开支阶段，全球铜矿的干扰率处在历史相对高位，初步预估2026年铜矿供应增速1%。同时，国内废铜供应受政策影响而收紧，原料端有所损失。冶炼端面临历史极低TC/RCs水平，产能利用率或受限。需求端，AI热潮带来的设备落地需求，叠加汽车行业受新能源汽车渗透率提升而增加用铜量，今年铜增速有望打开至4%。就供需平衡来看，2026—2027年全球全元素呈现供需缺口状态。关税仍悬而未决，非美地区库存不断往美国运输，导致非美地区更容易发生现货紧张，甚至是低库存下的挤仓风险，套利行为或持续推高铜价波动。
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