文/新浪财经香港站 王柳潞
星展发表研究报告，维持宁德时代（3750.HK）“买入”评级，但受税率上升拖累盈利能力影响，下调其港股目标价5.6%，由736港元降至695港元；同时下调A股目标价9.5%，由484元人民币降至438元人民币。并将明年每股盈利预测由24.2元人民币调低至21.9元人民币。
星展指出，电池出口退税率自今年4月由9%削至6%的负面冲击集中于第三季显现。而今年9月生效的2%电池消费税，由于未能即时与客户重新议价，大部分由电池厂商自行吸收。
展望未来，星展预计行业盈利压力将延续至明年，主要由于中国电池出口退税将于2027年由6%完全取消，且电池消费税亦将在2027年9月进一步提高至4%，单位利润或持续承压。
不过，考虑到海外电动车及储能电池需求强劲，公司仍锚定2027年出货量按年增长20%至30%的目标，并看好至2030年的稳步扩产节奏，持续的规模扩张将可部分对冲单位利润收窄的风险，长期增长逻辑依然稳固。
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