铜价震荡偏弱、旺季需求不足,铜业股承压,机构分歧加大

格隆汇
Oct 26

10月26日,港股铜业股继续下跌,其中,中国黄金国际跌超6%,中国大冶有色金属跌4.5%,中国有色矿业跌3.2%,江西铜业股份、金浔资源跌近3%,五矿资源跌2.4%。

消息面上,铜价缺乏上行动力是直接拖累。LME期铜近期收跌至约14,339美元/吨,沪铜夜盘同样偏弱,主力合约收于109,560元/吨附近。华泰期货指出,中东局势反复推高油价与美元,叠加降息押注后移,宏观流动性预期边际转弱,铜价短期以震荡偏弱运行为主。

尽管矿端供应偏紧格局未改(铜精矿现货TC深度负值),但需求端旺季表现不足,高铜价抑制下游补库,企业以刚需采购为主。机构对后市判断存在分歧:中邮证券认为短期宽幅震荡、深跌空间有限,建议回调后逢低布局;华泰期货则提示若中东局势未实质性缓和,铜价上方压力依旧存在。

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