野村:日本央行12月加息几成定局,中性利率不明令明年政策路径生变

格隆汇
Nov 02
日本央行行长植田和男释放鹰派信号,12月加息至1.5%几成定局,但明年进一步收紧货币政策的空间仍不明确。日本央行测算的名义中性利率区间为1.1%至2.5%,但由于该利率无法直接观测,政策制定者难以判断加息终点。日本通胀已连续高于2%的目标,企业支出保持强劲,推动央行加快政策正常化。不过,长期通缩和超低利率环境令家庭及企业可能对融资成本上升更加敏感。日本央行内部对加息节奏也存在分歧,部分鹰派委员主张加快升息。野村证券预计,日本央行可能在明年3月前后将利率升至1.75%,随后暂停加息,但最终路径尚未确定。

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