大行评级|晨星:预估微软自由现金流2027财年触底,维持每股600美元公允价值

格隆汇
Nov 05
晨星认为,市场可能过度关注AI投资给微软带来的短期现金流压力,低估Azure、Copilot及企业AI服务持续扩张的长期价值。该行维持每股600美元公允价值,对应2027财年调整后本益比约30倍。该行给予微软宽护城河评等,主要依据商业软件与云端服务的高转换成本、Microsoft 365与LinkedIn的网络效应,以及Azure在成本与规模上的竞争优势。 晨星模型预估,微软自由现金流将在2027财年触底,之后逐年改善。晨星大幅上调微软资本支出预估,预计2027财年现金资本支出将达1897亿美元,2028财年进一步升至2263亿美元,两年均约占营收47%。资本支出占营收比重则预计在2028财年达47%高峰,至2031财年降至34%,但仍明显高于过去软体产业的资本密集程度。

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