Micron Technology stock is under sustained pressure. Figures showing its market share in dynamic random-access memory shrank in the third quarter might not help much but it's more important to concentrate on the overall demand.
Micron shares were down 2.8% at $773.23 in premarket trading Thursday. That was set to add a 7% fall the previous day.
Memory-chip companies are feeling the pain from worries the artificial-intelligence boom will be slowed by victorious Democrats blocking or slowing data-center projects. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix dropped sharply in South Korean trading on Thursday.
So it looks like a bad time to hear Micron's market share in DRAM dropped to 21% in the third quarter from 26% for the same period the previous year, according to Counterpoint Research. DRAM is short-term working memory that computers and AI hardware use to manage active data and running processes. It makes up about three quarters of Micron's revenue.
But behind that lower market share lies huge growth overall. DRAM revenue across the entire market grew 369% in the third quarter from the previous year, according to Counterpoint, driven by higher average selling prices. So Micron's DRAM revenue is surging, but it just grew a bit slower than Samsung and SK Hynix.
This is a pricing supercycle, not yet a volume cycle," said Jeongku Choi, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research. "Bit shipments rose only about 4% this quarter, yet DRAM revenue reached nearly $200 billion, close to 5x a year ago. AI has turned memory from a commodity into a valuable scarce resource, and buyers are now competing for supply rather than negotiating on price."
Another positive note for Micron: Chinese memory company CXMT's market share slipped to 9% in the third quarter from 10% in the second quarter. That could soothe fears that China's memory companies are set to take an ever-growing part of the market.
Micron shareholders might be feeling the pain right now but the overall picture is still of overwhelming memory demand.