Wells Fargo's Top Investment Banker Sees 'Now or Never' Window for Dealmaking

Dow Jones
Yesterday

Democrats' widespread victories in the U.S. midterm elections crystallized a view already held by investment bankers and advisors across Wall Street: a window to complete big corporate tie-ups under a slate of friendlier federal regulators has an expiration date.

Companies and the bankers guiding them have long considered changing political winds while evaluating whether they can push big mergers and acquisitions through without meaningful pushback from regulators.

That talk of "capital markets windows," or periods when market conditions are ripe for raising money and making deals, has been a reality of the job for Fernando Rivas, now chief executive of corporate and investment banking at Wells Fargo, over his 30-year career.

But "there was very clearly a view of, 'it may be now or never,'" when President Donald Trump's second term began, Rivas said at a banking industry conference held in Boston on Thursday.

"Given what just happened in the midterms, that's going to come back to the forefront of the conversation," said Rivas, who Wells Fargo hired from JPMorgan Chase's investment bank two years ago.

His remarks echo expectations from analysts and rival dealmakers who have spoken with Barron's in recent weeks.

"After the midterms, the shot clock starts before the next presidential election," UBS banking analyst Erika Najarian said in an interview in mid-October. "Many banks think there could be a wave of deal activity ahead of the next presidential election."

Bankers are confronting the possibility that a Democrat could win the presidency in November 2028 and install regulators who are tougher on proposed deals than officials appointed by President Trump, some of whom have encouraged tie-ups between U.S. banks and promised shorter merger application review periods, for instance.

Wall Street is sprinting to finalize deals before then.

"Given how long approval timelines can be, which is very industry- and regulatory-specific, I think you are going to see transactions this year and in '27," Rivas added on Thursday. "That will be driven by folks thinking there's a real regulatory window. It's a reality."

Still, risks to dealmakers' plans remain.

Investors' skepticism over artificial intelligence companies' businesses have contributed to roiling markets, and on Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P 500 all notched their largest declines of 2026 after surging on Wednesday.

 

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