Global Commodities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
2 hours ago

The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1557 ET - Oil futures fall for a third consecutive session as the Democrats win control of the U.S. Congress, raising hopes for a settlement to the Middle East conflict, while diplomatic efforts continue in the region. "We feel that a huge amount of geopolitical risk premium has been extracted from the oil market in just three sessions," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. Although that could provide a base for another strong advance if President Trump opts for another military campaign against Iran, "the midterm results have skewed odds heavily in favor of diplomacy." WTI settles down 8.3% at $88.12 a barrel and Brent falls 8.7% to $94.62 a barrel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1444 ET - Gold futures rise with support from the slide in oil after Democrats took control of the U.S. Congress in the midterm elections, raising hopes for an end to the Middle East conflict. "We see gold as having substantial upside potential if the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the Yemen/Saudi conflict de-escalates," Max Layton of Citi Research says in a note. "Much lower oil prices could see the Fed shift from hiking to cutting rates, driving up investment demand for gold and re-igniting a momentum bull market globally underpinned by multiple structurally bullish dynamics," he says. Front-month gold rises 3.4% in New York to $4,061.10 a troy ounce. Silver rises 5.1% to $52.12 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1408 ET - U.S. ethanol production was its second-highest on record last week, averaging 1.143 million barrels a day, up from 1.118 million b/d the week before, the EIA reports. The only time production was higher was the week ended Jan. 9 this year, when it averaged 1.196 million b/d. Corn crushed for ethanol totaled 438 million bushels in September, according to the USDA's latest report, which was down 9% from August but up 1% from the year-earlier month. Corn futures are up 0.8% on CBOT at $4.46 a bushel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1319 ET - Russia exported around 2.9 million metric tons of wheat in October, the most since the start of the season, although alternative routes around the Black Sea such as rail and Baltic ports face difficulties ahead, grains consultancy SovEcon says in a note. "Alternative routes are operating near capacity, and the rail network remains heavily congested," the firm says. SovEcon estimates rail shipments at 900,000 to 1 million tons in October, down from 1.2 million tons in September amid severe congestion. "The scheduled end of river navigation in mid-November will put further pressure on the rail network." Wheat is up 0.9% on CBOT at $6.05 1/4 a bushel.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1224 ET - Precious metals futures are rebounding after the Democrats gain control of the U.S. Congress in midterm elections, sending oil prices skidding lower on market hopes for a Middle East settlement. "Markets are treating the result exactly as they often do after a big midterm shift: gridlock is good," Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note. "With neither side able to ram through big new spending or regulatory surprises, the path is clearer for risk assets and for the metals complex that had been waiting for a catalyst." Gold was higher in the November following the election in eight of the last 13 midterms, with an average gain of 14%, Flynn says, but warns: "history is a guide, not a guarantee." Gold for December delivery is up 3.3% in New York at $4,072.30 a troy ounce. Silver gains 4.9% to $52.20 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1222 ET - Canfor is managing to stay ahead of lumber-sector headwinds, standing out among peers, TD Cowen's Sean Steuart says. In a report, the analyst says that Canfor delivered a solid operational beat in 3Q despite a muted industry backdrop, showing encouraging margins and maintaining a flexible balance sheet while taking proactive steps to optimize its asset base. Steuart notes "adjusted Ebitda of C$107.1 million was above our estimate of C$84.3 million and the consensus forecast of C$82.7 million," and while the headline figure benefited from a C$9 million inventory revaluation, "core underlying results were still encouraging." (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1138 ET - Canadian miners lead the gainers in Toronto after Democrats sweep U.S. Congress and the Senate. Gold and silver are both higher after U.S. midterm election results showed the Democratic Party taking control of both chambers. The price of gold is up 2.8% to $4,051 an ounce, while silver jumps 4.4% to $52 an ounce. Gold traded above $5,000 an ounce before the war in Iran began in February and dropped to current levels in late October as soaring energy costs raise expectations of further interest rate hikes. Among the top gainers of the session are G Mining Ventures, Torex Resources, Aya Gold & Silver and Equinox Gold, as well as major names in the sector such as Kinross, Barrick Mining and Lundin Gold.(adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

1049 ET - McDonald's last week began an eight-week test of two new value offerings across about 1,900 stores in a handful of regions in the U.S., CEO Chris Kempczinski says. "We're testing mix-and-match bundles that give customers greater choice and provide familiar ordering behaviors for prior buy-one, add-one offers," he says on a call with analysts. "We're also testing fixed bundles that give customers a set combination at an attractive price and make ordering straightforward." McDonald's has been rolling out new value offerings in an effort to win back inflation-weary customers, especially lower-income consumers, who have reined in spending over the past few years. McDonald's rises 5%. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

1031 ET - Soybeans remain under selling pressure after StoneX raised its yield estimate for the 2026 harvest to 55 bushels per acre from 54.1 bpa in October. "StoneX did a mic drop and posted even bigger numbers than what was thought already big," Gary Sandlund of Futures International says in a note. "It creates supplies as far as the eye can see." Along with StoneX's higher corn yield estimate, it leads one to wonder if a real crop failure is ever possible again, given new genetic seeds and fertilizer usage, he adds. "The demand side of the coin needs to get in the game given these yields. Yes, it's been good in recent weeks but not good enough." Soybeans are down 0.7% on CBOT. Corn gains 0.3% and wheat is up 1%. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1013 ET - Crude futures extend losses to a third session in the wake of the U.S. midterm elections in which Democrats won control of the Congress. "The Democratic control of congress could also tighten U.S. military spending in the Middle East and further heighten the possibility of a peace deal sooner than later," Dennis Kissler of BOK Financial says in a note. "Larger crude oil exports out of the Middle East along with President Trump stating he has no immediate plans to strike Iran is keeping the pressure on crude oil prices for now." WTI is down 2.8% at $93.36 a barrel and Brent falls 2.7% to $100.82. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1006 ET - McDonald's continues to face a challenging consumer environment in the U.S., CEO Chris Kempczinski says on a call with analysts. Still, trends improved as 3Q progressed, with comparable sales turning positive in September following slightly negative results in July and August, he says on a call with analysts. "That improvement followed a series of interventions we initiated during the quarter: restoring some digital offers to drive frequency with our most engaged customers, shifting marketing support toward proven value platforms and stepping up our focus on restaurant level execution," Kempczinski says. While the burger chain is encouraged by the trending direction of the business, there is still more work to be done, he adds. McDonald's climbs 5%. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

0909 ET - The impact on U.S. natural gas of Democratic midterm election wins is likely to be limited, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note, as the Trump Administration retains control of the Department of Energy and EPA, and has presidential veto powers. A direct impact on natural gas and electricity could be a slowdown in data center construction in Texas, Georgia and Ohio under Democratic governors, he says. "Even if the pace of new data center construction merely slows down across multiple states as permitting times extend, our preliminary reaction is that the slower addition of new electricity demand may reduce projected power sector gas burn gains as much as 2 Bcf/d by 2030." Nymex natural gas is up 0.7% at $2.916/mmBtu in early trading.

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