U.S. Adds a Hotter-than-Expected 165K Jobs. the Fed Has Plenty of Room for a Rate Hike.

Dow Jones
Nov 06

The U.S. labor market crushed expectations in October, with unemployment ticking down and employers adding far more jobs than estimated. That will keep the Federal Reserve on track for an interest-rate increase in December.

U.S. employers added 165,000 jobs to payrolls last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. That dramatically surpassed the consensus forecast among economists surveyed by FactSet, which called for a gain of 65,000 jobs following September's revised 60,000 payroll gain.

The national unemployment rate was 4.1% in October, ticking down from September's 4.2% pace. It also marks 62 straight months of a jobless rate that has remained under 5%. That's just shy of the record 64 months that occurred from 1965 to 1970.

Additionally, the initial estimates of employment gains in August and September were revised higher by a combined 84,000 jobs.

The hotter-than-expected print -- led by gains in sectors like professional and business services, healthcare, and transportation and warehousing -- will keep Fed officials firmly focused on higher inflation heading into their last policy meeting of the year on Dec. 8-9.

The odds of the Fed implementing an interest-rate hike in December were up slightly at 73% after the jobs data, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Paired with expected higher inflation readings for October coming next week, those odds will likely climb higher.

The cementing of investors' expectations for a December rate increase is likely why October's strong job gains didn't set off huge gyrations in the markets. Treasury yields surged only briefly, and the stock market was largely unchanged after the report. Investors' focus remains primarily on artificial intelligence and technology moves in equities.

Friday's data release also supports Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's assurances in September that employment conditions are stable.

"On the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, conditions are quite positive, Warsh said during a news conference after the Federal Open Market Committee's September policy meeting.

The October jobs data were undeniably strong, with payroll gains proving fairly broad-based. The professional and business services sector led the pack, adding 70,000 jobs last month. That's a significant jump from the sector's monthly average of just 15,000 jobs over the past year.

After several months of slower job growth, healthcare hiring picked up, adding 42,000 jobs in October. The transportation and warehousing sector added 25,000 jobs.

Manufacturing employment also continued to trend up in October, adding 19,000 positions. Most of those gains were in areas related to the buildout of artificial intelligence, with employment in manufacturing of fabricated metals and computer and electronic products ticking up.

Boosts from the data-center buildout were also evident: Non-residential specialty trade construction contractors jobs grew by nearly 8,000 in October. Still, overall, construction hiring was down overall on the month by 3,000.

Unemployment ticked down as the workforce grew and participation rates rose, both good signs for the health of the overall labor market. These tighter labor conditions, however, seem to have fed into stronger wage pressures. The average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month over month, beating expectations and bringing the annual rate to 3.1%. That's up from September's 3% pace and reversed a few months of slowing growth.

The revival of wage pressures, while no means worth panicking over just yet, means the Fed will need to keep this on the radar for the first time in quite a while.

Still, alternative measures of labor slack remain a bit concerning. For instance, the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed -- including all people marginally attached to the labor force, as well as those employed part time for economic reasons -- rose to 7.9% from 7.6% in October. Additionally, duration among those who are unemployed has risen to its highest level since December 2021, with many job seekers continuing to take on part-time work when they would have preferred full-time opportunities.

Looking at long-term trends, the rates of hiring, quitting, and layoffs have all been persistently low at the same time. It is quite unusual for all three to move in tandem, especially outside of a recession, says Bruce Fallick, a senior vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Hires and quits tend to rise and fall together over a business cycle, while layoffs typically move opposite to both of those. Some longer-term trends do explain the low hiring and quit rates, such as demographic factors. The population, and the workforce, is aging. But there are still unexplained factors behind these trends, Fallick says.

Technological advances, more remote work, and the rise of two-income households in recent decades could all have a role in the low-hire, low-fire, low-layoff economy.

Overall, all of these indicators signal that the U.S. labor market is more vulnerable to shocks. That reality, along with the recent market tumult, signals that the Fed will favor small, incremental hikes.

"This payroll number removed the traffic light at the December intersection for the Fed," writes Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

The Fed's focus was already firmly on taking steps to cool inflation, Rosner says, but the continued signs of tightening in the labor market give it a license to raise rates.

The path ahead for rate policy continues to depend on underlying inflation trends. The October reading of the consumer price index will be released Tuesday.

If inflation continues to deliver strong monthly readings, that could push out the rate-increase cycle and nudge the Fed toward additional tightening in the first quarter of 2027.

 

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