Firefly Aerospace reported better-than-expected third-quarter results. The stock was down anyway. That doesn’t mean the quarter wasn’t solid. It looks fine, as space businesses continue to grow. The initial reaction means that trading in Firefly stock continues to be wildly unpredictable.
The rocket and spacecraft builder on Tuesday announced an adjusted Ebitda loss of $69.5 million from revenue of $110.7 million. (Ebitda is short for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.)
Wall Street was looking for an adjusted Ebitda loss of $78 million from sales of $102 million. A year ago, Firefly reported an adjusted Ebitda loss of $46 million from sales of $31 million.
Results look solid, but current results just aren’t critical yet. Firefly isn’t profitable. Wall Street projects positive Ebitda in 2029 when sales are expected to reach $1.3 billion.
Importantly, the business continues to build. Backlog rose to $1.7 billion, up from $1.5 billion at the end of the second quarter.
Shares were down 3% at $22.99 shortly after results were released. Shares dropped 2.5% in regular trading, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.
Recent trading in Firefly stock has been extreme. Shares jumped 17% on Monday after rising 37% on Friday. Still, through Tuesday’s trading, shares were down roughly 60% from a May 52-week high north of $60 a share. Many space-related stocks rallied into the June IPO of SpaceX only to fall later.
The rally on Friday was catalyzed by a surprise deal to supply AST SpaceMobile with rocket engines.
AST, frustrated by some of its launch partners, is going to build its own rockets to put its communications satellites in orbit. Time will tell if that was the right choice. Building rockets is notoriously difficult.
The deal is worth about $1.3 billion and includes 36 engines over a three-year period. That’s a lot. Wall Street currently projects about $3 billion in cumulative revenue for Firefly between 2027 and 2029.
The deal could help the company reach profitability sooner. Firefly ended the quarter with more than $530 million in cash and investments on its books. Wall Street projects $60 million to $70 million of cash use per quarter for the coming few quarters.