高盛:内地物流业竞争加剧下调盈测 荐买京东物流(02618)

智通财经
Nov 10

智通财经APP获悉,高盛发布研报称,内地物流板块A股第三季业绩期结束,呈现分化格局,因主要地区价格竞争重现及需求放缓,该行将2027及2028年行业利润预测进一步下调0.4%及1.4%;板块中该行唯一给予“买入”评级的物流股为京东物流(02618),目标价17港元。

该行指出,加盟制快递企业盈利差异扩大,市场份额提升的申通快递(002468.SZ)及圆通速递(600233.SH)EBIT分别同比增长72%及47%,而份额流失的韵达股份(002120.SZ)EBIT则同比下跌13%。综合物流企业录得稳健盈利增长,例如顺丰控股(06936)EBIT同比增长15%,透过成本效率,应对核心时效业务放缓及燃料价格压力上升。货运代理方面,中国外运(00598)EBIT增长13%,受惠于缩减低利润率货运运力,以及合资公司经营利润增长约60%。

该行表示,虽然板块估值被压缩,但继续保持选择性,偏好具独特盈利推动因素的公司,因第三季竞争再度加剧,对手以进取策略抢占市场份额,行业增长进一步放缓,其中申通快递同比增长18%、极兔速递同比增长15%、圆通速递同比增长12%,均录得双位数销量增长,好过行业水平。

该行唯一给予“买入”评级的物流股是京东物流,其盈利组合有利,第三季及第四季预测净利润增长10%及35%,估值为2027年预测市盈率6倍。

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