Oil prices rebounded from initial losses and closed higher Thursday after President Trump said the U.S. doesn't need a deal with Iran, putting some risk premium back into a market that has been optimistic about chances for a negotiated solution to the conflict.
Brent crude for January delivery rose 3.3% to $95.82 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate for December gained 2.6% to $88.74 a barrel.
"We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post. He also claimed that the U.S. had secured Iran's money and control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Vice President JD Vance was considering direct talks with a senior Iranian security official to help end the war, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing U.S. and Middle Eastern officials and people familiar with the negotiations. Trump had empowered Vance to negotiate, though discussions about a face-to-face meeting remained preliminary, the Journal reported.
"We see risks to oil prices skewed higher near term, as a diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-Iran tensions remains out of reach and the market is not positioned for a continuation of the status quo," Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note. "We maintain our view that market participants seem a bit too sanguine about the balance of risks for oil prices in the near term."
Strategists at Singapore-based bank OCBC said expectations of reduced U.S.-Iran escalation following the midterm elections have weighed on crude. Resilient Gulf exports, easing freight costs and softer physical-market conditions have also pressured prices, they said.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an unexpected 4.7 million barrel increase for last week in U.S. crude oil stockpiles, compared with market expectations of a small draw. Gasoline and diesel stocks also rose.
The report "looked bearish across the complex," trading advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note, but added that the reaction to Trump's post was an example of how strong geopolitical risk premium can be reinjected into the market.
Security threats persisted. Debris from two intercepted Houthi ballistic missiles had fallen in the Mecca region the previous day, Saudi state media said, citing the Saudi Civil Defense authority.
The International Maritime Organization said Wednesday that it had verified more than 130 attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb. 28. At least 25 seafarers have been killed, with others missing or injured, the agency said.
OCBC maintained its year-end Brent forecast at $100 a barrel, citing tanker attacks, longer shipping routes and limited vessel availability as factors keeping delivered crude costs elevated.
The International Energy Agency's monthly oil-market report is scheduled for Friday.