Recent global instability has caused fluctuations in domestic and international markets. In an interview, Zhang Yidong, Executive Committee Member, Chief Economist, and Head of Research at Haitong International, provided an in-depth analysis of the opportunities within the restructuring of the international order and the sustained bull market for China's core assets.

Zhang Yidong pointed out that over the past two weeks, markets have shown a trend of "rising oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and falling gold prices." He attributed this partly to profit-taking from gold positions established earlier in the year and partly to persistent market inertia, as the petrodollar system has not yet been fundamentally broken. However, he believes these short-term trading behaviors may not indicate the correct long-term direction.

"The logic behind the gold bull market is not dependent on the US dollar or US real interest rates," Zhang stated. He explained that the core pricing logic for gold has shifted towards a premium reflecting the certainty of a restructuring in the international financial order. He emphasized that this restructuring is inevitable—the US dollar is beginning to lose its dominance, and profound changes are underway in the global financial system.

Zhang Yidong stressed that the impact of the current war on the petrodollar system is the opposite of the 1990 Gulf War's effect. "If this war drags on, the petrodollar system won't just wobble; it will collapse," he asserted. He judges that after three weeks of conflict, the foundation of the petrodollar has already been severely shaken. Recent lackluster auctions for US 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds, with yields remaining high, indicate a shift in willingness among Middle Eastern investors to allocate funds to US debt.

Zhang Yidong also highlighted potential risks. He noted that if a low-probability event occurs—such as high-intensity warfare continuing until September or even year-end, potentially triggering a global financial crisis—gold could face short-term pressure due to liquidity shocks. The decline in gold prices earlier this week exhibited some characteristics of a liquidity shock.

However, he emphasized that, barring a global financial crisis, the current environment presents a good opportunity to allocate to gold. Even in an extreme scenario, once liquidity pressures ease after a sell-off, gold's rebound tends to be stronger—"like a spring; the greater the pressure, the stronger the bounce."