Abstract

TJX Companies will report fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 results on February 25, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview outlines consensus revenue, margin and EPS expectations alongside segment dynamics and prevailing institutional views.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, consensus indicates TJX Companies’ revenue is projected at $17.36 billion, with adjusted EPS expected around $1.39 and EBIT near $2.05 billion; year-over-year growth is implied at 7.14% for revenue, 19.45% for EPS, and 17.40% for EBIT. The company’s operating model is expected to sustain a stable gross profit margin profile with continued mix and inventory discipline and a net profit margin broadly consistent with last year, pointing to healthy merchandise margin execution. Management focus remains on traffic-led comp growth across apparel and home assortments; the most promising banner remains Apparel at $36.63 billion trailing revenue, supported by resilient off-price demand and new-vendor flow, with recent quarters showing mid-single-digit growth.

Last Quarter Review

In the last reported quarter, TJX Companies delivered revenue of $15.12 billion, a gross profit margin of 32.59%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of $1.44 billion, and a net profit margin of 9.54%, while adjusted EPS was $1.28, representing a 12.28% year-over-year increase. A notable highlight was operating profit outperformance versus prior guidance, supported by better-than-anticipated merchandise margins and tight expense control. Main business performance was led by Apparel with $36.63 billion in revenue and Home Fashion at $19.73 billion, with Apparel contributing roughly 65% of sales; both categories benefited from consistent traffic growth and improved inventory turns.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business trajectory and pricing-power signals

The core off-price apparel and accessories business remains the primary earnings engine this quarter, with comps expected to be driven by traffic rather than ticket. The guidance-implied adjusted EPS trajectory suggests continued merchandise margin tailwinds from opportunistic buying, with disciplined inventory intake likely to cap markdown risk. Gross margin sustainability hinges on vendor availability and pack-and-hold optimization; an ample closeout pipeline from branded vendors keeps content fresh, but a sudden tightening in supply could compress buying marks and pressure merchandise margin progression. Operating leverage from store productivity gains should offset wage and occupancy inflation, though incremental shrink investments and logistics costs bear monitoring.

Most promising growth vector and unit economics

Home Fashion is positioned as the incremental growth vector into fiscal Q4, benefiting from refreshed assortments and seasonal transition categories. While the category’s revenue base was $19.73 billion in the last quarter, the current quarter forecast points to solid mid-single-digit year-over-year growth as consumers trade into value for décor, small furniture, and housewares. The margin profile in Home Fashion has historically trailed Apparel, but better buying opportunities and faster turns are narrowing the gap; if flow and breadth improve as expected, category mix could be neutral to slightly accretive to gross margin. Digital is not the core driver of revenue, yet omnichannel initiatives that tighten the link between inventory visibility and store discovery can improve full-price sell-through and reduce markdowns.

Key stock drivers for this print

The stock’s reaction will likely center on comp sales cadence and gross margin durability against higher shrink and supply-chain expenses. Investors will parse commentary on inventory availability and pack-and-hold levels to gauge the sustainability of buying marks into spring. Operating expense discipline, including wage rate management and logistics productivity, will frame EBIT flow-through; with EBIT forecast up 17.40% year over year to $2.05 billion, any variance will be magnified in the multiple. Capital return progress via buybacks can enhance EPS growth alongside fundamentals, but the core narrative remains traffic-led comps, merchandise margin execution, and stability of shrink trends.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional previews, the majority view is bullish, emphasizing durable traffic growth, consistent gross margin execution, and a favorable closeout pipeline that supports buying marks and EPS upside potential. Analysts highlight that the projected 7.14% revenue growth to $17.36 billion and 19.45% EPS growth near $1.39 reflect conservative comps and expanding operating margin, with upside risk if shrink moderates and vendor availability remains ample. Well-followed sell-side voices point to TJX Companies’ broad vendor network and flexible inventory model as advantages in a mixed discretionary backdrop, with particular confidence in the apparel engine and improving Home Fashion trends.