Abstract

Teekay Tankers will report its quarterly results on February 18, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to year-over-year growth in revenue and earnings as investors watch realized TCEs, cost discipline, and any forward commentary on commercial performance and capital deployment.

Market Forecast

Based on current-quarter forecasts, Teekay Tankers is expected to generate $206.07 million in revenue, implying 11.29% year-over-year growth, with consensus also indicating EPS of $2.67 (up 61.24% year over year) and EBIT of $81.15 million (up 40.55% year over year). Forecasts do not explicitly include gross profit margin or net profit margin, and will therefore be assessed against the latest reported margins when results are released.

The main business continues to be dominated by voyage charter revenue, which historically offers higher operating leverage to spot rate conditions and underpins near-term earnings variability and upside potential if realized rates track recent fixtures. The most promising segment by absolute contribution remains voyage charters, which delivered $189.16 million last quarter; segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed, but the scale of contribution positions it as the key swing factor for quarter-to-quarter performance.

Last Quarter Review

Teekay Tankers’ previous quarter delivered $229.02 million in revenue, a gross profit margin of 33.01%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $92.08 million, a net profit margin of 40.21%, and adjusted EPS of $1.54 (down 16.30% year over year).

A notable highlight was the quarter-on-quarter growth of net profit, which rose by 47.06%, underscoring the sensitivity of earnings to operational leverage and realized day rates even as revenue modestly contracted year over year by 5.86%. By main business, voyage charters contributed $189.16 million (82.60% of revenue), time charters contributed $2.09 million (0.91%), and other revenue reached $37.78 million (16.49%); segment-level year-over-year growth was not provided.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Voyage charter revenue as the core earnings lever

Voyage chartering remains the primary earnings engine for Teekay Tankers, accounting for 82.60% of last quarter’s revenue at $189.16 million. Given the company’s exposure to realized spot rates and the direct pass-through of voyage expenses within that revenue line, quarter-to-quarter earnings outcomes typically hinge on time-charter equivalent (TCE) levels and utilization. The current-quarter consensus framework—revenue at $206.07 million and EBIT at $81.15 million—suggests an expectation that realized commercial performance remains solid versus the prior-year comparable despite an anticipated sequential normalization from the prior quarter’s $229.02 million revenue base.

From a margin perspective, last quarter’s 33.01% gross margin and 40.21% net profit margin provide an anchor for investors to judge mix and cost dynamics when the new results arrive. If realized TCEs land in line with internal fixtures and voyage expenses remain well managed, the drop-through from revenue to EBIT implied by the $81.15 million forecast looks consistent with operational leverage typical of a voyage-heavy model. Conversely, any reversal in realized rates would disproportionately affect margins given the high contribution of voyage charters to the top line. The forecasted EPS of $2.67 and EBIT growth of 40.55% year over year reinforce that the Street expects stronger unit economics versus the year-ago quarter, even as the sequential revenue path moderates from the prior quarter’s high base.

Most promising business: Scaling opportunities within core voyage charters

Although Teekay Tankers includes smaller contributions from time charters ($2.09 million last quarter) and an “Other” category ($37.78 million), the largest growth optionality still sits with voyage charters due to their outsized revenue share and the company’s demonstrated ability to capture favorable realized TCEs when market conditions support them. At $189.16 million last quarter, voyage charters provided the scale necessary to translate incremental rate improvements into meaningful EBIT and EPS uplift, which is reflected in the current-quarter forecasts of EPS up 61.24% year over year and EBIT up 40.55% year over year. While segment-level year-over-year growth was not disclosed for voyage charters, the combination of strong absolute contribution and high operational leverage positions this line item as the most consequential driver of the quarter’s earnings sensitivity.

In this context, investors will focus on the cadence of fixtures completed and any commentary on the share of voyage employment versus time-chartered capacity in the fleet mix. The prior quarter’s sizable net margin, which exceeded gross margin due to non-operating items and mix, highlights that headline profits can move in ways not fully explained by gross margin alone. The current period’s EBIT forecast offers a cleaner lens on core profitability, and matching or exceeding that level would likely signal that realized voyage returns remain robust. Conversely, if revenue lands at or near $206.07 million but EBIT underperforms the $81.15 million expectation, it would imply either lower-than-anticipated operational leverage or more pronounced voyage expense headwinds than modeled.

Factors most likely to impact the stock price this quarter

Earnings dispersion relative to consensus: With revenue estimated at $206.07 million and EPS at $2.67, the magnitude and direction of any surprise will be central to the post-release share reaction. The prior quarter’s outturn featured a sequential net income upswing of 47.06%, and investors will be attentive to whether this momentum is sustained or partially reversed as seasonal patterns and mix evolve. An upside revenue and EBIT print would likely confirm that realized rates and utilization tracked favorably against internal and external models, supporting the 61.24% year-over-year EPS growth forecast; a miss on EBIT despite in-line revenue would point to cost absorption or voyage expense variability.

Margin signals and guidance color: Absent published gross and net margin forecasts, the Street will key off reported gross margin versus last quarter’s 33.01% and any management commentary that frames the balance of the quarter and near-term periods. If the company’s commentary indicates steady operational execution or visibility into sustained commercial strength, investors may extrapolate that into a more favorable run-rate for EBIT beyond the quarter. If, however, margin commentary skews cautious, markets may recalibrate the leverage assumptions embedded in the EPS forecast.

Revenue mix and “Other” line dynamics: Although “Other” revenue was $37.78 million last quarter (16.49% of revenue), the stability and trend of this contribution can influence quarter-to-quarter earnings durability. If “Other” contains items with lower variability, sustained contributions around recent levels would lessen reliance on spot-driven voyage charters for meeting EBIT targets. Conversely, any softening in “Other” coincident with lower voyage charter revenue could compound the earnings variability implied by the core business. Since “Other” and time charters together accounted for 17.40% of last quarter’s revenue, clarity on these streams could meaningfully affect how investors model margins over the next few quarters.

Sequential normalization versus year-over-year growth: The juxtaposition of a sequential revenue step-down from $229.02 million to a $206.07 million estimate and an 11.29% year-over-year revenue gain underscores the importance of the comparison base. In simple terms, the Street is braced for revenue to be lower than the immediate past quarter but higher than the same quarter a year ago. How investors weigh those two comparisons—particularly if EBIT and EPS meet or exceed the year-over-year growth expected—will influence the share-price reaction. Achieving the forecasted $81.15 million EBIT while delivering $206.07 million in revenue would validate that the business maintained healthy unit economics and operating leverage despite the sequential revenue moderation.

Capital allocation and balance-sheet read-throughs: While last quarter’s net profit margin of 40.21% reflected favorable non-operational and mix elements in addition to gross margin dynamics, the resultant cash generation implications will be scrutinized alongside any updates to capital allocation. The market’s reaction will be sensitive to indications of how near-term cash flows might support balance-sheet strength or shareholder returns, even though such actions may fall outside the scope of operating metrics. In the absence of explicit margin forecasts, reiterating discipline in operating costs and voyage expense management will be key to underpinning confidence in the forward earnings algorithm.

Analyst Opinions

Within the January 1, 2026 to February 11, 2026 monitoring window, newly published sell-side previews or rating changes specifically addressing this earnings release were limited, and we did not identify fresh institutions publishing detailed quarter-specific expectations beyond the consensus reflected in the current financial forecasts. Consequently, the prevailing stance inferred from available estimates leans neutral into the print, with consensus anticipating positive year-over-year growth in revenue, EBIT, and EPS while acknowledging potential sequential normalization from the previous quarter’s higher base.

Given this backdrop, the majority view we emphasize is the neutral, wait-and-see stance anchored in the published consensus numbers: revenue forecast at $206.07 million (+11.29% year over year), EBIT at $81.15 million (+40.55% year over year), and EPS at $2.67 (+61.24% year over year). Analysts following the company appear focused on realized TCEs, the relationship between revenue mix and margin capture, and any guidance that sheds light on the durability of earnings beyond the quarter. The inference is that meeting or modestly exceeding these benchmarks, particularly on EBIT and EPS, would help confirm that Teekay Tankers’ operational leverage and cost control remain intact, whereas a weaker margin bridge would prompt reassessment of near-term profitability assumptions embedded in models.

In practical terms, the consensus-driven neutral stance frames the upcoming announcement as a confirmation event: if the company’s realized commercial performance aligns with the Street’s expectations and management’s commentary supports the pace of year-over-year growth indicated by the forecasts, models are likely to remain stable or drift upward; if EBIT margins print below the trajectory implied by last quarter’s operating profile and current estimates, we would expect a cautious recalibration. In the absence of a flurry of fresh analyst publications in the monitored period, this preview relies on the latest available consensus constructs to characterize institutional sentiment as balanced heading into February 18, 2026 Post Market.