On Friday (January 16), the A-share market encountered resistance after an initial rise, consolidating with minor fluctuations. The major indices opened higher and fluctuated upwards in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index meeting resistance near the 4140-point mark. Subsequently, the indices retreated, oscillating throughout the day. Sectors such as consumer electronics, semiconductors, electronic components, and photovoltaic equipment performed relatively well during the session. In contrast, internet services, cultural media, energy metals, and mining sectors showed weaker performance. The Shanghai Composite Index essentially displayed characteristics of minor consolidation throughout the trading day. The ChiNext market also experienced a fluctuating decline on Friday, with the performance of the ChiNext Index largely mirroring that of the main board throughout the day.
The A-share market encountered resistance after an initial rise on Friday, consolidating with minor fluctuations. The major indices opened higher and fluctuated upwards in the morning session, with the Shanghai Composite Index meeting resistance near the 4140-point mark. Subsequently, the indices retreated, oscillating throughout the day. Sectors such as consumer electronics, semiconductors, electronic components, and photovoltaic equipment performed relatively well during the session. In contrast, internet services, cultural media, energy metals, and mining sectors showed weaker performance. The Shanghai Composite Index essentially displayed characteristics of minor consolidation throughout the trading day. Currently, the average price-to-earnings ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 16.88 times and 53.38 times, respectively, both above the median level of the past three years, making them suitable for medium to long-term positioning. The trading volume for the two markets on Friday was 3,056.8 billion yuan, positioned above the median range of the average daily trading volume over the last three years. Since the beginning of January, market activity has become more vibrant again, with the margin trading balance climbing simultaneously. Clear signs of incremental capital entering the market provide support for the continuation of the current trend. The continuous decline in domestic risk-free interest rates, coupled with a trend of household deposits shifting towards the equity market, has created an environment of ample liquidity. The enhanced attractiveness of Renminbi assets has collectively boosted market risk appetite. The slight expansion in the year-on-year increase of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 indicates marginal improvement in domestic demand. Against a backdrop of effectively amplified trading volume, positive policy expectations, and continuous industrial catalysts, it is anticipated that the current market trend will continue to advance. For allocation strategies, it is recommended to balance two main themes: technological innovation and the recovery of traditional industries. The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to maintain a high likelihood of slight, fluctuating upward movement. Investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity conditions, and policy developments. For short-term opportunities, focus is recommended on sectors such as consumer electronics, semiconductors, electronic components, and photovoltaic equipment.
Risk warnings include an unexpected overseas recession impacting the pace of domestic economic recovery; domestic policies and economic recovery progress falling short of expectations; unexpected disruptions in the macroeconomy; unforeseen changes in policies; alterations in the economic environment due to changes in international relations; unexpected tightening of overseas macro liquidity; and intensified volatility in overseas markets.