11月6日,《纽约时报》最新数据显示,共和党候选人特朗普在2024年美国大选中胜出的概率已高达90%,有望赢得301张选举人票。根据规则,只需获得270张选举人票即可入主白宫。
数据显示,特朗普在关键摇摆州宾夕法尼亚、密歇根和威斯康星的得票率持续领先。同时,加密预测市场Polymarket上特朗普胜选赔率在大选夜的临近也出现大幅飙升,一度达到88.6%。
与此同时,投资者在Polymarket上押注特朗普和哈里斯的交易额超过36亿美元。其中法国交易员Théo一人就下注4500万美元押注特朗普胜选,如果特朗普最终如期大获全胜,该交易员可获8000万美元的回报。
在特朗普胜选预期大增的背景下,长期报道总统大选的《纽约时报》股价当日盘中大涨5%,市场对其未来发展前景抱有较大信心。
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