Abstract

Freshpet will report fourth-quarter results on February 23, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes consensus expectations for revenue, margins, GAAP net income, and adjusted EPS, alongside recent business developments and institutional commentary since January 1, 2026.

Market Forecast

Market models for the current quarter project Freshpet revenue at $286.71 million, up 8.55% year over year, EBIT of $29.24 million with 27.41% growth, and adjusted EPS around $0.39 with roughly a 0.25% decline; margin commentary implies continued gross margin expansion and stable-to-improving net profitability. Freshpet’s core refrigerated pet food distribution through grocery, mass, club, and pet specialty channels remains the near-term volume driver, supported by household penetration and price architecture, while the fastest-growing opportunity is deeper expansion in grocery, mass and club, which last quarter generated $232.48 million and continued to scale off higher velocity.

Last Quarter Review

Freshpet’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $288.85 million, a gross profit margin of 39.53%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $102.00 million, a net profit margin of 35.20%, and adjusted EPS of $1.86, outpacing year-over-year growth on all profit metrics. A notable highlight was a sharp improvement in operating leverage that lifted margins faster than sales growth, aided by manufacturing scale and disciplined spend. By channel, grocery, mass and club represented $232.48 million of sales (about 80.49% mix), while pet specialty and natural contributed $56.37 million, underscoring the priority of broad retail distribution as the main growth engine.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core refrigerated pet food in grocery, mass and club

The company’s principal revenue stream is the grocery, mass and club channel, which accounted for about 80% of last quarter’s sales. With management and consensus pointing to revenue of $286.71 million this quarter, we expect this channel to remain the critical determinant of top-line performance. Distribution breadth and velocity per point should benefit from marketing and innovation, while lapping strong 2025 holiday sell-through may temper sequential momentum. Any incremental promotional normalization to defend shelf space would be watched for its impact on unit growth versus realized net pricing. Execution at in-store fridges and steady replenishment from plant capacity are likely to help sustain high-30s gross margin, consistent with last quarter’s 39.53%, though seasonal mix can create modest quarterly variability.

Pet specialty and natural channel as a complementary growth lever

The pet specialty and natural channel represented roughly 19.51% of revenue last quarter at $56.37 million, offering incremental household penetration into higher-engagement shoppers. While smaller in absolute dollars, it provides a testbed for premium innovation and can support blended pricing power. We expect mid- to high-single-digit revenue contribution growth this quarter in line with company-level guidance assumptions, with profitability supported by mix and lower incremental freight. Any distribution wins or expanded shelf doors in specialty retailers could outpace the corporate run-rate, though the base is smaller and subject to retailer resets early in the year.

Stock price swing factors this quarter

Share performance around the print is likely to hinge on the durability of margin improvement and the visibility of 2026 production scale-up. Gross margin tracking near the high-30s to 40% band would validate recent plant throughput gains and procurement benefits, while EBIT progression near the $29.24 million mark (27.41% YoY growth) would signal sustained cost discipline. Investors will focus on adjusted EPS delivery near $0.39 and the bridge from operational improvements to net income after non-operating items. Channel checks on velocity, fridge uptime, and any commentary on capital projects ramp and depreciation cadence could inform the forward margin trajectory. Guidance language on FY26 revenue growth and the balance between marketing and capacity adds will also be important sentiment drivers.

Analyst Opinions

The prevailing tone from institutional previews tilts constructive, with a majority of recent notes expecting Freshpet to land close to or slightly above revenue and EBIT forecasts while maintaining gross margin near last quarter’s level. Positive views emphasize continued demand resilience in the refrigerated pet category, operational execution that supports EBIT growth near 27% year over year, and manageable promotional intensity that preserves pricing architecture. In our view, the bullish camp’s case is anchored in sustained productivity improvements and strong sell-through in grocery, mass and club, while acknowledging that seasonal mix can cap adjusted EPS growth in the near term.