Recently, global technology stocks have simultaneously entered a period of adjustment. What are the different driving forces behind the pullbacks in the A-share technology sector and the US Nasdaq? Faced with volatility, how should investors choose between "technology" and "resources" for offensive and defensive positioning? On June 10th, Liao Bo, Chief Macro Analyst at Northeast Securities, visited the Sina Securities live broadcast to provide an in-depth analysis for investors.
Liao Bo pointed out in the dialogue that to understand this round of adjustment, one must first grasp the commonalities. Whether in A-shares or US stocks, the core market narrative remains driven by liquidity. This includes changes in the benchmarks for domestic mutual fund products, as well as the focus of primary and secondary markets on individual stocks like new listings; some institutions may be positioning for this in advance.
However, the differences are more crucial. Liao Bo's analysis suggests that the recent strong US non-farm payrolls data has sparked market concerns about Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and liquidity tightening, an external pressure currently absent in the A-share market. The A-share adjustment is more a result of contagion from external market sentiment, such as fluctuations in Japanese, Korean, and US stocks. The core distinction lies in the domestic monetary policy and liquidity environment, which maintains a stance of "moderately loose." He anticipates that the People's Bank of China will still have room for one reserve requirement ratio cut and one interest rate cut in the second half of 2026.
Addressing the currently debated strategy of "technology as the spear, resources as the shield," Liao Bo provided a clear allocation logic. He noted that the market was accustomed to stock-bond portfolios in the past, but in the short term, the equity market is more worthy of attention, while the commodity market remains relatively unfamiliar to most investors.
On the commodity side, he reiterated his previous judgment: the energy and chemicals sector is most favored in the first half of 2026, while the second half sees a stronger preference for agricultural products, including palm oil, soybeans, and corn. These varieties are both essential consumer goods and strategic materials, making them more susceptible to cost transmission driven by rising crude oil prices. As for technology stocks, he believes the narrative of a "double whammy" is far from over.
From the broader perspective of the Kondratieff cycle, Liao Bo outlined the four stages of asset price transmission: starting with the steep rise in precious metals (gold, silver) at the beginning of the year, gradually transmitting to base metals (copper, aluminum), then to the third stage of energy and chemicals, and finally the fourth stage of agricultural products. He judges that due to influences such as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical situations, and the El Niño phenomenon, the progression of the third and fourth stages will be more pronounced this year, even showing an accelerating trend.
Finally, Liao Bo concluded: "Technology as the spear, commodities as the shield," with technology being the main offensive direction and commodities serving as defensive allocations. He believes that the new portfolio combinations emerging from global macro shifts have the potential to create better Sharpe ratios and investment returns.