金融市场已完全放弃对美联储今年降息的押注，中东战局预计将推高通胀压力。根据芝加哥商品交易所集团数据，衍生品市场显示今年降息概率已归零，较周四的1.3%大幅下滑。市场目前定价显示，至少加息一次的概率高达54%。
这场冲突引发的能源价格冲击波，已彻底改变全球央行的政策前景。各国央行如今同时面临通胀攀升与经济放缓的双重挑战。随着能源市场紊乱加剧，通胀压力向更广泛价格领域蔓延的风险正在持续扩大。
就在一个月前冲突爆发前夕，投资者还预期今年将有两到三次降息。而美联储在上周的议息会议中，多数官员仍预测今年会有25个基点的降息空间。
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