By mid-February 2026, the global commodities market has weakened collectively against the backdrop of a rebounding U.S. dollar. The price of gold fell significantly during U.S. trading hours, dropping below the key psychological level of $4,900. OEXN analysis indicates this phase of decline is primarily influenced by the strengthening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and a shift in macro risk-aversion sentiment. As market anticipation builds for a series of upcoming U.S. core economic data releases, short-term capital, lacking new positive catalysts, opted to take profits from elevated positions, causing gold to break away from its previous strong consolidation range.
When analyzing the underlying logic of recent price fluctuations, researchers pointed to the contraction of geopolitical risk premium as a key driver behind the gold price correction. Despite ongoing aircraft carrier deployments and military exercises in the Middle East, the previously tense geopolitical premium rapidly dissipated following the U.S.-Iran negotiations reaching a "guiding principles" consensus in Geneva. This shift in sentiment has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in the short term, giving way to the attractiveness of strengthening U.S. dollar-denominated assets.
Beyond the dilution of geopolitical factors, the market is closely watching for upcoming policy signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Analysis suggests that the Fed's January meeting minutes and Friday's release of the PCE price index will directly shed light on the expected pace of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026. Furthermore, the market's perception of the nominated candidate for the new Fed Chair as non-dovish has intensified anxiety within the metals market due to this perceived shift in policy preference. Relevant data shows that, alongside precious metals, positions in industrial metals like copper futures have also seen high-net-worth clients exiting, reflecting a defensive sector-wide repositioning against potential future liquidity tightening risks.
Despite facing short-term selling pressure, OEXN believes that from a broader macro-cycle perspective, gold's fundamental logic remains robust. Given that cumulative gold purchases by global central banks, especially in emerging markets, accounted for over one-third of global demand in 2025, and with expanded federal fiscal spending in 2026 expected to persistently erode fiat currency credibility, the value-preserving attributes of physical assets like gold remain irreplaceable. The current price pullback is viewed more as a technical correction from overbought conditions. Once the PCE data and preliminary GDP figures provide clearer economic direction, the price range between $4,800 and $4,900 could serve as a crucial reference point for bulls to re-establish defensive positions.