Abstract

NMI Holdings Inc will report its quarterly results on February 10, 2026 Post Market; this preview consolidates the latest financial data and forecasts, focusing on revenue, margins, EPS, and business mix alongside institutional sentiment in the run-up to the announcement.

Market Forecast

Market models for the current quarter point to revenue of $159.80 million, up 6.32% year over year, with adjusted EPS forecast at $1.19, up 5.78% year over year. Company-level indicators suggest the gross profit margin will remain elevated around the low-70% range, and net profit margin is expected to hold above 50.00%, broadly consistent with the recent run rate, though no explicit margin guidance has been issued.

The company’s core mortgage insurance operations are expected to sustain steady premium growth as persistency remains healthy and new insurance written stabilizes; investment income should provide a modest uplift given higher reinvestment yields. The segment with the most promising near-term growth remains net investment income, supported by a larger investment base and yield tailwinds, though absolute dollar growth remains smaller than premium revenue.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, revenue reached $151.32 million, with a gross profit margin of 73.30%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of $96.00 million, a net profit margin of 53.73%, and adjusted EPS of $1.21; revenue grew 5.57% year over year and adjusted EPS rose 5.22% year over year.

A key financial highlight was the robust margin profile, reflecting favorable loss performance and operating leverage. Main business revenue was led by net premiums at $151.32 million, complemented by net investment income of $26.77 million, with smaller realized investment gains of $0.32 million and other income of $0.26 million; growth was concentrated in premium and investment income.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Mortgage Insurance Franchise

The primary revenue driver is expected to remain net premiums, which constituted the bulk of last quarter’s $151.32 million in revenue and are projected at $159.80 million this quarter based on the top-line forecast. Persistency trends and stable credit performance should support premium recognition, while pricing discipline in a competitive private mortgage insurance market helps defend yield. Loss ratios have been benign given ongoing labor market resilience and stable delinquency cure rates, which, if sustained, underpin the company’s ability to maintain a net profit margin above 50.00% in the near term.

On the expense side, operating leverage continues to benefit profitability as earned premium growth outpaces fixed-cost growth, maintaining the gross margin near the low-70% level. The company’s strong capital position relative to risk-in-force, coupled with reinsurance programs, should moderate earnings volatility. The forecast EPS of $1.19 implies a steady earnings cadence, slightly below the immediately prior quarter due to seasonal factors and potential mix effects in new insurance written.

Investment Income as a Secondary Growth Vector

Net investment income contributed $26.77 million last quarter and is poised for incremental growth as securities roll into higher rates, which supports the earnings base without materially increasing risk. Even small increases in portfolio yield can translate to measurable EPS support given the high margin capture. With benchmark rates remaining elevated into the quarter, reinvestment dynamics likely keep investment income trending upward on a sequential basis.

The contribution from realized investment results was minimal at $0.32 million, suggesting limited reliance on trading gains. Stability in the portfolio and a focus on high-quality fixed-income instruments should keep volatility contained, reinforcing predictability in overall returns. If spreads remain favorable, investment income’s outperformance could help offset any mild deceleration in premium growth.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Margin resilience will be closely watched, particularly the net profit margin relative to the recent 53.73% level and the gross margin near 73.30%. Any deviation driven by claim development or expense normalization could sway sentiment more than top-line changes. Additionally, commentary on new insurance written and persistency will serve as leading indicators for revenue trajectory into subsequent quarters.

Capital management updates, including potential buybacks or dividend actions, may influence valuation multiples given the company’s high return on equity profile. On the risk side, an unexpected uptick in early-stage delinquencies or unfavorable macro prints that pressure housing affordability could lead to higher loss provisioning, impacting net margin and EPS. Conversely, continued stability in employment and home prices would support both underwriting and persistency, reinforcing the forecasted EPS of $1.19 and revenue of $159.80 million.

Analyst Opinions

The balance of institutional commentary over the past six months leans constructive, with a majority expecting steady earnings progression and resilient margins into this print. Analysts emphasizing the sector backdrop note that disciplined underwriting, favorable credit trends, and rate-supported investment income provide a buffer for EPS delivery around the $1.19 mark while supporting revenue growth of 6.32% year over year. Positive views highlight the healthy risk-in-force growth and strong capitalization, which together should sustain net margins around the recent 50.00%–55.00% range. Bears remain in the minority, mainly flagging macro sensitivity tied to mortgage origination volumes and potential shifts in house price indices that could elevate future loss ratios; however, most expect stable credit metrics through the quarter being reported.

Overall, the prevailing outlook calls for a solid, consistent quarter characterized by mid-single-digit revenue growth and high-50s EPS dollars per share, supported by robust underwriting results and incremental investment income tailwinds. Continued clarity on new insurance written, persistency, and capital deployment will be key to whether shares react favorably post release on February 10, 2026 Post Market.