The US conflict with Iran has now stretched into its seventh month, and its economic fallout is tearing through America’s agricultural heartland with unprecedented intensity. Skyrocketing diesel prices, tariffs inflating farm input costs, and frozen export markets are piling pressure on the farming community that once formed the most secure pillar of Trump’s voter base, pushing many toward a breaking point.

The national average price for diesel touched $6.49 per gallon this week, a surge of roughly 75% from a year earlier, with AAA data showing North Carolina hitting a record $6.19 per gallon on Thursday.

North Carolina farmer Matt Bell told CBS News that the $35,000 fuel budget he had set aside for 2026 was already exhausted by August, with his actual annual spending projected to land between $50,000 and $60,000. “Every single piece of equipment runs on diesel,” he said. “We have no way out.”

That frustration is converting into political signals. Several farmers interviewed said they had voted for Trump multiple times in the past but are now weighing their ballot choices anew. Farmer John Boyd Jr. told CNN that more than 400 farm foreclosure cases are currently pending nationwide, calling it “an insolvency crisis for farmers.” With midterm elections approaching, Republican enthusiasm in rural districts has shown a marked decline.

Diesel Chaos： From Budget Blowouts to Hourly Quoting

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz sparked by the war with Iran, combined with persistent Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and the strain that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has placed on refining capacity, has collectively driven a sharp contraction in global fuel supplies. According to AAA, the nationwide diesel average sits between $6.40 and $6.49 per gallon, nearly double the level of a year prior, while some parts of California have seen prices approach $10 per gallon.

The sheer volatility of prices has rendered normal business planning all but obsolete.

Matt Bell noted that quotes from his diesel supplier remain valid only for the morning, with prices hiked by the afternoon, making it impossible to lock in costs. His combine harvester burns roughly $600 in fuel each day, while John Boyd Jr.’s combine requires 140 gallons for a single fill-up, costing close to $1,000.

“You cannot go without fuel, you cannot go without fertilizer — these are necessities,” Bell said. He has been forced to delay equipment replacements, produce a portion of his own fertilizer, and diversify into pumpkin picking and hayride tours as side income to support the farm, yet still struggles to stay afloat.

The Rancher’s Predicament： A War That Came Without Warning, Protections That Were Pulled Away

Texas rancher Lynn Fleming told Sky News that her fuel spending in August was nearly double the same period last year. Her husband, Robert Fleming, said the war caught them completely off guard: “We had no idea he was going to do this in the Strait of Hormuz. He didn’t tell us… we had zero warning about what was coming.”

Adding insult to injury, Trump’s decision to eliminate tariffs on imported beef in an effort to curb food prices has left already-struggling American ranchers feeling betrayed. South Texas rancher Josh Eilers told Sky News: “I’m already absorbing these sky-high fuel prices that came out of nowhere. Please, just give me a little help. I can’t keep absorbing these costs indefinitely, or I won’t survive.”

One of the cornerstone promises of Trump’s 2024 campaign was to serve as a “peace president” who would not start any new wars.

Beyond the war’s impact, Trump’s tariff policies constitute the second major blow. Bell pointed out that fertilizer, fuel, pesticides, seeds, and spare parts — “everything we touch has gone up in price” — with most of those increases stemming directly from tariff policy.

Base Erosion Adds Uncertainty to the Midterms

Nearly all of the farmers interviewed acknowledged having voted for Trump in past elections, but their anger over current conditions has begun to crystallize into concrete political intentions.

Matt Bell describes himself as a Republican, but says he may “split his ticket” in November, judging candidates on whether they possess “common sense” and genuinely listen to constituents. He said he initially supported the war with Iran, believing the short-term costs might be worth it, but his assessment has now shifted: “I think we were misled.”

John Boyd Jr. was more blunt. He told CNN that farmers have voted for Trump three times, but Democrats now have an opportunity to reclaim lost ground. “This is the breaking point for farmers,” he said. “The president made a lot of promises — that tariff revenue would flow back to farmers — but that money went to big corporations, nothing came to us, just a pile of empty promises from this administration.”

Robert Fleming’s comments perhaps best capture the shifting mindset of this group: “I worry there could be some changes in voting, and maybe a lot of people just won’t vote at all — because a lot of people feel that ordinary folks like us simply haven’t been heard.”

Reports indicate that with midterms approaching, Republican enthusiasm has slipped noticeably nationwide, and the unrest in rural communities is a significant contributing factor.

“I Don’t Know What Else to Do” — The Deepening Survival Crisis on the Farm

For many farmers, this crisis is no longer an abstract policy debate but a life-or-death question of livelihood. Bell said he already knows farmers who have been forced out by insurmountable costs, unable to survive the current growing season.

“I don’t want any American to feel sorry for American farmers,” Bell said. “I want Americans to be angry — angry that we’ve been put in this position. We’re fighting for survival, and we’re running out of options.”

When asked what he would do if he could no longer farm, Bell paused before answering: “I don’t know. It’s the only thing I’ve ever done in my life.”