Gold Needs Trade and Rate Clarity; Tariff Possibility Looms

Market Watcher
16 Jul

Gold prices continue consolidating near $3,300 per ounce as markets await clearer signals on interest rates and trade policies, according to Joe Cavatoni, Chief Market Strategist for North America at the World Gold Council (WGC). The recent U.S. imposition of tariffs on copper imports serves as a reminder that similar measures against gold cannot be ruled out.

Cavatoni noted that while he hadn't anticipated the 50% tariff on copper imports, such policy shifts align with the current administration's focus on reducing foreign dependence for critical minerals. "Regarding tariffs on metals vital to U.S. defense or energy security, all options remain on the table," he stated. "The administration has clearly prioritized addressing supply chain vulnerabilities."

The strategist emphasized that gold currently enjoys favorable tariff treatment but cautioned against complacency. "The postponement of deadlines until August merely alters the timeline, not the fundamental policy direction," Cavatoni remarked. "The government takes mineral sourcing extremely seriously."

When questioned about potential gold-specific tariffs, Cavatoni explained gold's distinct classification: "Present indicators suggest gold is primarily viewed as a monetary metal rather than a critical mineral. Its economic role centers on savings instruments, portfolio allocations, and central bank reserves—not defense or telecommunications applications. This distinction historically kept it off critical mineral lists."

However, physical metal flows between nations could trigger tariff responses. "Cross-border movements create logistical complexities," Cavatoni observed. "We're monitoring how tariff structures evolve—whether applied to raw materials, finished products, or wholesale transactions. While current frameworks appear clear, policy remains fluid until finalized."

Regarding gold's price stagnation near $3,300, Cavatoni attributed it to market uncertainty: "Participants struggle to assess the rapid-fire impacts of tariffs and trade negotiations. Tactically, gold responds to momentum and opportunity costs—potential Fed rate cuts later this year may provide short-term support. But strategic conviction requires stronger fundamental signals."

The WGC maintains a long-term perspective, with Cavatoni noting: "Breaking current consolidation demands substantive shifts—understanding the economy's true trajectory, the Fed's path, and the dollar's future. Gold's 26% year-to-date surge already outpaces typical annual expectations. Sustaining gains requires patience for clearer macroeconomic signposts."

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