Market analysis indicates that the latest US economic data shows the Consumer Price Index for June fell by 0.4% month-over-month. This figure not only fell short of market expectations for a 0.1% decline but also marked the first month-over-month contraction since the early stages of the pandemic in 2020. On an annual basis, the June CPI rate dropped significantly to 3.5% from 4.2% in the previous month. Comments from the Federal Reserve Chair emphasized that the central bank's primary task is to restore price stability and ensure the high inflation of the past five years is in the past. He noted the current resilience of the US economy, rapid growth in business investment—particularly in AI-related infrastructure—and overall stability in the labor market. However, the Fed needs to assess the impact of new technologies like AI on productivity, employment, and inflation.

Futures Performance and Trading Volume

On July 14, 2026, the main Shanghai gold futures contract opened at 887.50 yuan per gram and closed at 880.26 yuan per gram, representing a decrease of 0.64% from the previous trading day's close. The daily trading volume was 41,087 contracts, with open interest at 129,725 contracts. In the previous night session, the main contract opened at 890.00 yuan and closed at 885.90 yuan per gram, a gain of 0.64% from the afternoon session close.

On the same date, the main Shanghai silver futures contract opened at 14,286.00 yuan per kilogram and closed at 14,217.00 yuan per kilogram, a change of 0.58% from the prior close. The daily trading volume reached 469,117 contracts, with open interest at 189,904 contracts. In the night session, it opened at 14,430 yuan and closed at 14,381 yuan per kilogram, rising 1.15% from the afternoon close.

Monitoring US Treasury Yields and Spreads

As of July 14, 2026, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note settled at 4.62%, a change of 0.02% from the previous day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year yields was 0.36%, narrowing by 0.03% from the prior session.

Changes in Shanghai Futures Exchange Gold and Silver Positions and Volume

For the Au2608 contract on July 14, long positions decreased by 940 contracts compared to the previous day, while short positions increased by 2,082 contracts. The total trading volume for Shanghai gold contracts on the last trading day was 294,765 contracts, an increase of 13.66% from the day before. For silver, on the Ag2608 contract, long positions decreased by 776 contracts and short positions fell by 1,405 contracts. The total trading volume for silver contracts on the last trading day was 952,730 contracts, a decrease of 1.95% from the prior session.

Tracking Precious Metals ETF Holdings

Regarding precious metals ETFs, gold ETF holdings remained unchanged from the previous day at 1,002.45 tonnes. Silver ETF holdings decreased by 34 tonnes to 14,939 tonnes.

Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking

Regarding the futures-spot basis: On July 14, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 11.19 yuan per gram, while the domestic premium for silver was -143.12 yuan per kilogram. The gold-to-silver ratio: The ratio based on the main Shanghai futures contract prices was approximately 61.92, down 1.21% from the previous day. The international market gold-to-silver ratio was 69.72, down 0.99% from the last session.

Fundamental Data

Monitoring of the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market for the previous trading day (July 14, 2026) shows gold trading volume was 40,902 kilograms, an increase of 6.62% from the prior session. Silver trading volume was 373,820 kilograms, a decrease of 3.65%. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and silver delivery volume was 2,520 kilograms.

Trading Strategy Outlook

For gold, a cautiously bullish stance is advised. Weaker-than-expected inflation data has marginally alleviated market concerns about a significantly more hawkish shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy. The clearing of some macro headwinds has supported a slight rebound in precious metals prices. However, with a notable simultaneous escalation in US-Iran tensions, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on the subsequent evolution of the geopolitical situation. It is anticipated that gold prices may exhibit a predominantly strong and volatile pattern in the near term, with the Au2608 contract likely fluctuating within a range of 870 to 900 yuan per gram.

For silver, a similarly cautious bullish view is maintained, as its underlying logic aligns with that of gold. Silver is also expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern, with the Ag2608 contract likely oscillating within a range of 14,000 to 15,000 yuan per kilogram.

Arbitrage strategies are suggested to be put on hold for now.

Option strategies are also suggested to be put on hold.

Key Risk Factors

The primary risks identified are overseas liquidity risks and the continued exit of speculative positions from the market.