In terms of financial attributes, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced last week that the January non-farm payrolls report, originally scheduled for Friday, has been postponed to February 11, while the CPI data will be delayed until February 13. This postponement is primarily due to the partial government shutdown earlier in the week. It is worth noting that although the data has not yet been released, the ADP report indicated that U.S. private sector employment increased by only 22,000 jobs in January, significantly below market expectations. With the January data being further revised downward, market expectations for the upcoming non-farm payrolls report are pessimistic, potentially reflecting a continued cooling of the U.S. labor market. Additionally, following former President Trump's endorsement of Kevin Warsh for Federal Reserve Chair, Trump further stated that he would not support Warsh if he advocated for interest rate hikes. This clearly demonstrates Trump's stance, which may lead to increased market expectations for future Fed rate cuts, thereby alleviating macroeconomic pressure on oil prices.

On the geopolitical front, recent events influencing oil prices have seen further developments. Regarding U.S.-Iran relations, indirect talks between Iran and the U.S. were held in Muscat, Oman, last week. Iran's foreign minister subsequently described the talks as having a good start, with consensus reached on continuing negotiations. This has significantly eased market concerns over Middle East tensions. With the next round of talks scheduled for this week, there is potential for further de-escalation. However, prior to the talks, the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone, and Trump insisted that Iran must accept the nuclear agreement, urging U.S. citizens to leave Iran immediately ahead of the negotiations. This suggests that substantive progress in the U.S.-Iran talks may be difficult to achieve in the short term, meaning geopolitical risks are likely to remain highly uncertain.

Regarding fundamentals, the commodity attributes of crude oil have not shown significant substantive changes recently. However, the EIA is set to release its January energy outlook report this week. In its previous report, the EIA further lowered its demand expectations for this year and increased projections for a decline in U.S. production. This indicates that the crude oil market may gradually shift toward a scenario of weak supply and demand. Therefore, the demand expectations in this week's report deserve close attention. Additionally, although OPEC+ has maintained its policy of pausing production increases, the market remains skeptical, continuing to trade on the current loose supply situation. This could re-emerge as a core factor dragging down oil prices if geopolitical tensions ease.

Beyond the three core attributes of crude oil, another key point to monitor is the change in options dynamics. The volatility index for crude oil has continued to trend upward. On the last trading day of last week, the volatility for domestic crude oil futures reached nearly 52, essentially matching last year's peak. However, from a fundamental perspective, neither the commodity attributes nor the macroeconomic factors of crude oil have shown significant changes. This suggests that the market's trading logic for crude oil has largely lost clear directional judgment. From a geopolitical standpoint, if tensions in the Middle East escalate significantly, oil prices could surge rapidly in the short term, further driving volatility higher. Conversely, if geopolitical tensions ease, the market would quickly price out the geopolitical risk premium, also leading to increased price fluctuations. Thus, regardless of how geopolitical factors evolve, crude oil volatility has considerable upside potential, without requiring a clear directional bias. This implies that out-of-the-money options may see increased value, presenting attractive opportunities for strategic positioning.

Overall, oil prices performed relatively weakly last week as the market gradually priced out the previous geopolitical risk premium amid ongoing U.S.-Iran talks. From the perspective of crude oil's intrinsic dynamics, the fundamental situation of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. However, due to persistently high geopolitical tensions, the downward pressure from fundamentals has not fully materialized. On the macroeconomic front, growing expectations for future Fed rate cuts may alleviate some downward pressure on oil prices. Still, the progress in U.S.-Iran talks could lead to a cooling of geopolitical risks. If a substantive agreement is reached, the market may quickly adjust, significantly reducing the geopolitical risk premium. In summary, geopolitical factors remain the core driver of oil prices, with high uncertainty persisting. Regardless of the negotiation outcomes, oil price volatility is expected to remain elevated. This suggests that domestic energy commodities will continue to face significant external disruptions during the Spring Festival holiday. Therefore, it is advisable to gradually reduce positions or hold light positions ahead of the holiday. Alternatively, consider option strategies to manage risk. For reference only.