Benefiting from the optimized arrangement of this year's Spring Festival holiday, which included improved scheduling and the inclusion of New Year's Eve, long-distance travel by residents saw accelerated growth, which is expected to help increase per capita spending. The increase in holiday duration, combined with numerous New Year shopping promotions launched across various regions, has driven robust growth in domestic scenic spot visits and catering consumption. Recommendations favor sectors with strong pro-cyclical attributes and significant pricing elasticity, such as duty-free and hotels. Within the catering sector, preference is given to leading fast-food and tea beverage chains that feature high frequency and strong delivery service scenarios. Additionally, service consumption platform companies are recommended.

Core travel passenger volume growth has increased sequentially, with long-distance travel expected to benefit per capita consumption. According to data from the Ministry of Transport, total cross-regional passenger flow in the first six days of the Spring Festival holiday reached 1.72 billion person-trips, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. Benefiting from the optimized holiday arrangement, long-distance travel grew faster, which is anticipated to boost average spending. Specifically, railway passenger volume reached 66.49 million, up 8.1% year-on-year, while civil aviation passenger volume was 14.13 million, up 7.8% year-on-year. Data from CADAS indicates that starting from the first day of the Lunar New Year, as residents began holiday travel, the average passenger load factor on domestic routes increased by an average of 3 percentage points year-on-year (compared to 1-2 percentage points previously). The average airfare including fuel surcharges turned from negative to positive growth, with ticket prices from February 17 to February 20 rising between 4.9% and 6.8% year-on-year.

The duty-free sector has returned to high growth, supported by premium consumption recovery, new product categories, and policy support. In Hainan, the recovery in high-end consumption continues, supplemented by consumer vouchers and diverted demand from Japan. Duty-free sales in Hainan for the first four days reached 970 million yuan, up 16% year-on-year. In Sanya, cumulative sales in February increased 19% year-on-year. Specifically, from the second to the fourth day of the Lunar New Year, the four major duty-free shops in Sanya achieved average daily sales of 250 million yuan, a 30% increase compared to the same lunar period last year. The China Duty-Free Group store in Haitang Bay recorded average daily sales exceeding 200 million yuan on the first and second days of the New Year. In Zhuhai, new product categories such as gold, jewelry, and Apple phones, alongside traditional categories, contributed to a 40% year-on-year increase in sales up to the first day of the Lunar New Year.

The extended holiday period and widespread New Year shopping promotions have fueled strong growth in domestic tourism and catering. In Hubei province, A-level scenic spots received 15.02 million visitors in the first six days, a year-on-year increase of 12.41%. In Sichuan, A-level scenic spots received 42.02 million visitors, generating ticket revenue of 338 million yuan during the same period. Provinces including Fujian, Shanghai, Guangxi, and Shandong also reported steady growth in tourist numbers and revenue. Per capita spending showed signs of stabilization, with Guangxi reporting visitor spending growth (12.1%) outpacing visitor number growth (11.5%). In Shandong, scenic spot operating revenue growth (9.6%) was largely in line with visitor growth (10.6%). Major scenic spots such as Jiuhuashan, Emeishan, and Jiuzhaigou operated at or near capacity, indicating a high level of activity in the cultural and tourism consumption sector. For retail and catering, the longer holiday and promotional activities led to an 8.6% year-on-year increase in average daily sales for major national retail and catering enterprises in the first four days. Haidilao reported a more than 10% increase in customer traffic on New Year's Eve and the first day of the Lunar New Year compared to the same period last year.

Cross-border passenger numbers during the holiday are expected to hit a new high, with Macau's tourism market maintaining strong momentum. According to forecasts from the National Immigration Administration, average daily inbound and outbound passenger volume at ports nationwide during the Spring Festival holiday is expected to exceed 2.05 million, a 14.1% increase compared to last year's holiday period. Data from the Macao Government Tourism Office shows that the average daily number of mainland visitors from February 16 to February 20 was 133,000, a year-on-year increase of 10%. Data from the Hong Kong Immigration Department indicates that the average daily number of mainland visitors from February 15 to February 20 increased 7.8% year-on-year.

Risks include a potential economic downturn, extreme weather and unforeseen events, and slower-than-expected recovery of international flights.