Here's an analysis of gold's upcoming trend and direction:

On August 1st, Thursday, spot gold staged a dramatic recovery. Following the previous trading day's sharp decline, gold prices surged back to near the $3315 level, gaining over $40 in a single session. The core driver behind gold's rebound came from the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision. While the Fed acknowledged slowing U.S. economic growth, downgrading economic momentum from June's "solid pace" in their statement, they maintained a neutral stance, keeping interest rates unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range. This delicate balance of "acknowledging risks while maintaining policy" is triggering a new round of long-short dynamics in the gold market.

Recent gold investors have faced significant challenges. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations suddenly cooled, allowing the dollar to stage a strong comeback, putting pressure on gold prices. Adding to the complexity, shifting trade policy signals have repeatedly tested market sentiment, making even safe-haven capital hesitant to take clear positions. The current gold market faces dual pressures: responding to the Fed's "tightening" signals while digesting the volatile pace of trade policy developments, suggesting limited near-term upside potential.

Examining specific price action: After two consecutive trading sessions of long-short battles, gold ultimately retreated from the $3335 level. As key support levels at $3320 and $3300 were successively breached, gold prices declined on increased volume. Notably, the previous low at $3302 failed to provide effective support, with prices breaking lower to test $3268, closing with a large bearish candlestick. This indicates that Tuesday's rebound was merely a technical correction within the broader downtrend. Following four consecutive declining sessions, this large bearish candle suggests the week's trend will likely continue in a weak pattern.

Gold currently sits at a critical juncture: If bulls can reclaim and hold above $3335 on Friday, it could trigger a significant rally; however, continued weakness may lead to testing $3250 support. Should the daily Bollinger lower band area close positive without opening, rebound conditions would be established. The 4-hour chart shows gradual upward movement, though caution is warranted for potential evening reversals. Trading recommendation suggests establishing long positions around $3280 with stops at $3270, targeting $3315-3330, with extended targets at $3350. Friday's price action will likely determine gold's medium-term direction.