The China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) Annual Conference (2025-2026) was held in Beijing on November 30, where a report was released. The report recommends targeted measures to boost consumption and solidify the foundation for sustained domestic demand growth.
The report highlights that expanding domestic demand during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period hinges on stabilizing household consumption capacity, enhancing willingness to spend, and improving consumption experiences. It also emphasizes creating a virtuous cycle between consumption and industrial upgrading through supply-side reforms and improved business environments.
Current challenges include weak income expectations, high time costs, and institutional constraints on certain high-end or emerging consumption sectors. Supply-demand mismatches further limit the full release of consumption potential. Structural gaps in service consumption—such as talent shortages, lack of brands, and inconsistent industry standards—alongside credit risks and regulatory imbalances also hinder consumption recovery.
To address these issues, the report proposes a four-pronged approach: 1. **Demand-side measures**: Strengthening employment, reducing costs, and alleviating concerns to encourage spending. 2. **Supply-side improvements**: Enhancing quality and innovating consumption scenarios to meet personalized needs. 3. **Market environment optimization**: Regulating market order and refining supervision to improve consumer experiences. 4. **Policy coordination**: Establishing a synergistic policy framework to bolster long-term consumption capacity.
Key recommendations include: - **"Having money"**: Implementing employment revitalization programs and expanding public services like elderly care and childcare to reduce household burdens. - **"Having time"**: Incorporating paid leave compliance into corporate credit evaluations and offering tax incentives to compliant firms. Encouraging ESG disclosures to enhance transparency. - **"Enjoying leisure"**: Piloting a staggered provincial holiday system to alleviate overcrowding during peak travel periods. For example, adjusting National Day holidays by a few days across provinces. - **New consumption drivers**: Promoting themed festivals, night economies, and sports/entertainment economies. Issuing targeted vouchers for cultural tourism. - **Untapped demand**: Facilitating inbound tourism (e.g., visa-free policies, duty-free shopping), addressing elderly relocation needs, and unlocking high-income group consumption by expanding premium services and goods.
On the supply side, the report advocates: - Local government-led branding initiatives in sectors like elderly care and tourism. - Tech integration (e.g., AR/VR, big data) to innovate services and streamline processes (e.g., unified scenic spot booking platforms). - Workforce training to address skill gaps, particularly in elderly and child care.
Market environment reforms focus on: - Building a service consumption credit system and cracking down on fraud. - Adopting flexible regulations for grassroots solutions (e.g., neighborhood childcare centers). - Ensuring fair competition for SMEs.
Policy enhancements include: - A national "15th Five-Year Plan" for high-quality service sector development with quantifiable targets (e.g., childcare slots per 1,000 people). - Upgrading infrastructure (e.g., community service hubs, smart logistics). - Bundling supportive policies (e.g., linking housing incentives with family support measures).