Abstract

Wingstop will announce its quarterly results on February 18, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview highlights expected revenue, margin, and EPS trends alongside consensus views and key business drivers.

Market Forecast

Consensus projections for the current quarter point to Wingstop’s revenue of 177.97 million, a year-over-year increase of 8.21%, with EBIT estimated at 43.38 million and EPS at 0.84, reflecting a year-over-year EPS change of -2.92%; the quarter’s gross margin and net profit margin outlook are guided by recent trend persistence rather than explicit updates. Forecast commentary emphasizes franchising-driven royalty and fees as the principal performance anchor, with unit growth and advertising-funded digital demand sustaining mix and pricing power. The most promising segment appears to be royalties, franchise fees and other, supported by an expected revenue base near 81.19 million last quarter and solid year-over-year unit expansion; the segment’s YoY growth context is underpinned by the consolidated revenue estimate, while explicit segment YoY is not separately guided.

Last Quarter Review

Wingstop’s last reported quarter delivered revenue of 175.74 million, a year-over-year increase of 8.15%, gross profit margin of 48.85%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 28.48 million, net profit margin of 16.20%, and adjusted EPS of 1.09, a year-over-year increase of 23.86%. One notable highlight was EBIT of 51.48 million, which exceeded prior estimates and signaled operating leverage amid stable commodity inputs. Main business highlights showed royalties, franchise fees and other at 81.19 million, advertising and related at 62.02 million, and company-owned restaurant sales at 32.53 million; the blended growth was consistent with consolidated revenue expansion, though segment-level YoY figures were not separately disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Franchising and Royalty Economics

Franchising remains the core earnings engine, with royalties, franchise fees and other forming the largest revenue pillar and the highest incremental margin contributor. Management’s footprint expansion strategy typically compels solid, fee-based revenue growth with relatively modest capital intensity, supporting EBIT resilience even if same-store sales growth moderates. As units ramp and franchisees lean into digital ordering and throughput initiatives, system sales expansion tends to translate efficiently into royalties. The model’s high-flow through magnifies EBIT sensitivity to top-line shifts, which is reflected in the current quarter’s forecasted EBIT of 43.38 million despite lighter revenue versus the prior quarter, suggesting seasonality and a return to normalized operating expense cadence. Investor attention skews to royalty rate stability and franchise health, including store economics under poultry pricing trends, delivery mix, and promotional cadence; any step-down in these variables would be felt disproportionately in EBIT and EPS given limited fixed-cost absorption requirements.

Advertising Fund and Digital Demand

The advertising and related segment functions as a systemwide demand engine and a catalyst for digital engagement, enabling coordinated promotions and media investments that support traffic consistency. The latest quarter’s 62.02 million in advertising and related revenue suggests robust fund contributions aligned with higher system sales, which in turn generally bolster app usage and delivery mix. For this quarter, the forecast presumes sustained media efficiency and ongoing momentum in digital channels, anchoring expectations for steady system sales growth and mix benefits even as EPS is projected to ease by 2.92% year over year to 0.84. Risks include advertising elasticity amid consumer discretionary shifts and competitive discounting; however, Wingstop’s brand-led campaigns tend to secure balanced customer acquisition costs. Digital order penetration is a structural tailwind: higher basket sizes and streamlined operations can offset occasional commodity or labor noise, meaning that a stable ad fund can maintain revenue consistency even when corporate-owned store sales face seasonal variability.

Company-Owned Restaurants

Company-owned restaurant sales of 32.53 million in the previous quarter illustrate a smaller, but strategically important, revenue base for testing menu innovation, operational improvements, and customer experience initiatives. This segment carries more direct exposure to input costs and labor variability, which can compress margins relative to fee-based franchising. For the current quarter, stability in poultry costs and ongoing operational focus on throughput and labor scheduling are central levers to protect store-level contribution. While franchise royalties lead consolidated profitability, company-owned stores are critical proof points for initiatives later scaled systemwide, and their performance often signals potential shifts in broader franchise performance. A balanced mix of delivery and takeaway, combined with targeted promotions, can safeguard traffic patterns during post-holiday months. Any material divergence in company-owned comps versus franchise comps would attract investor scrutiny and could influence near-term sentiment around EPS durability.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock’s near-term performance is likely to hinge on same-store sales trajectories versus expectations, commodity cost commentary with a focus on poultry pricing, and any updates on unit development pace and pipeline. Margin color related to gross profit and the net profit margin will be watched closely, as the last quarter’s 48.85% gross margin and 16.20% net margin set a high-quality baseline. Guidance nuance around EPS pace, including the projected decline of 2.92% year over year to 0.84 this quarter, can influence valuation multiples given Wingstop’s premium growth narrative. Investors typically parse ad fund efficiency, delivery mix, and loyalty program traction for clues on sustainable demand. Commentary on international development and nontraditional formats may also shape perceptions of multi-year growth optionality.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views dominate recent analyst commentary on Wingstop, citing resilient franchise economics, disciplined unit growth, and consistent system sales expansion. Several well-known institutions have reiterated positive stances, emphasizing the defensible royalty stream and scalability of digital demand; these perspectives frame EBIT stability even with slight sequential revenue variability. Analysts highlight that prior quarter outperformance on EBIT and adjusted EPS increased confidence in the model’s operating leverage, with franchise development pipelines reinforcing mid-teens system sales potential. The consensus tilt acknowledges the near-term EPS forecast of 0.84, down 2.92% year over year, but it couches this as a manageable normalization rather than a deterioration, with royalty and advertisement-led revenue expected to sustain the broader growth profile.