Guoyuan International released a research report projecting INNOCARE's (09969) revenue for 2025-27 at RMB2.01 billion, RMB2.06 billion, and RMB2.56 billion, respectively, with net profits of RMB117 million, RMB17 million, and RMB188 million. The company holds approximately RMB7.2 billion in cash and equivalents, sufficient to fund innovative research. Driven by scientific innovation, INNOCARE boasts strong product capabilities. Based on a DCF model, the target price is set at HK$16.81, implying a 28% upside from the current price, with a "Buy" rating.

Key highlights from Guoyuan International include: 1. **Orelabrutinib Shows Strong Performance in SLE Phase IIb Trial** INNOCARE focuses on hematologic malignancies, solid tumors, and autoimmune diseases. In the SLE Phase IIb trial, the 75mg orelabrutinib group achieved a significantly higher SRI-4 response rate (57.1%) compared to the placebo group (34.4%). Subgroup analyses showed a 35% improvement in SRI-4 response for patients with baseline BILAG≥1A or ≥2B, and a 43% improvement for those with BILAG≥1A or ≥2B and SLEDAI-2K≥4. The CDE has approved a Phase III trial for orelabrutinib in SLE, with the first patient expected to enroll in Q1 2026.

2. **Pipeline Accelerates with Zorletinib Approval** INNOCARE’s self-developed novel TYK2 inhibitor, ICP-488, received CDE approval for a Phase II trial in cutaneous lupus erythematosus (CLE). ICP-488 blocks inflammatory cytokine signaling by targeting the TYK2 JH2 domain. Additionally, the NMPA approved zorletinib (ICP-723) for treating NTRK fusion-positive solid tumors in adults and adolescents aged 12+. Clinical data demonstrated high efficacy: an 89.1% objective response rate, 96.4% disease control rate, 77.4% 24-month PFS, and 90.8% 24-month OS—outperforming first-generation TRK inhibitors.

3. **BD Progress: Collaboration with ZenasBio Pharma** In October 2025, INNOCARE partnered with ZenasBio Pharma, granting rights to orelabrutinib for non-oncology indications outside Greater China and Southeast Asia, as well as global multiple sclerosis applications. Zenas paid a $100 million upfront cash payment, with the deal’s potential value exceeding $2 billion, accelerating overseas clinical development.

**Risk Factors**: (1) New product R&D may lag expectations; (2) Commercialization progress could fall short; (3) Geopolitical complexities may delay global expansion of innovative drugs.