Abstract

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance will report its quarterly results on February 10, 2026 Post Market; this preview summarizes last quarter’s performance, forecasts revenue, margins and adjusted EPS for the upcoming quarter, and compiles recent institutional commentary to help set expectations around credit costs, net interest income, and segment performance.

Market Forecast

Based on the company’s financial forecast dataset, Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance’s current quarter revenue is estimated at $47.53 million, up 0.97% year over year; EBIT is estimated at $14.70 million with a 15.15% year-over-year increase; estimated EPS is $0.24 with a 4.12% year-over-year increase. Forecasts for gross profit margin, net profit margin, and adjusted EPS growth beyond the EPS estimate were not provided by the dataset, so market consensus remains centered on a modest revenue uptick, a sequentially stable margin framework, and an EPS profile that edges higher year over year by low single digits.

Main business performance is expected to be anchored by net interest income resilience and property-related income stability as portfolio repricing and asset resolutions continue; management’s pre-released framework implies revenue growth near flat, with EBIT expansion signaling improved operating efficiency. The most promising segment is net interest income, with last quarter’s contribution of $40.04 million and a year-over-year contraction already cycling, implying favorable comparables and a pathway to low-single-digit growth if credit costs normalize.

Last Quarter Review

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $61.62 million, a gross profit margin of 71.39%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $50.79 million, a net profit margin of 74.71%, and adjusted EPS of $0.30; year-over-year growth for revenue and EPS in that period was negative in the dataset, indicating tougher comparables tied to elevated credit-related impacts and portfolio repositioning. A key highlight was a sharp quarter-on-quarter improvement in GAAP profitability, with net profit up 144.91% QoQ, reflecting lower credit loss provisions and steadier net interest income execution.

By business line, net interest income contributed $40.04 million while company-operated real estate activities contributed $21.58 million; the mix suggests a core earnings base dominated by net interest income, with property operations providing incremental revenue diversity amid selective asset resolutions and leasing progress.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business: Net interest income trajectory and portfolio yield dynamics

Net interest income remains the primary driver of earnings quality for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance this quarter, as assets continue to benefit from higher benchmark rates while funding costs stabilize. The company’s revenue estimate of $47.53 million implies a cautious stance on portfolio cash yield and fee recognition, consistent with a backdrop where repayments, extensions, and nonaccruals influence period-to-period variability. With EBIT estimated to grow 15.15% year over year to $14.70 million, the spread between top-line growth and operating earnings signals improved cost discipline and potential benefits from lower provisioning versus the prior-year comp period. A key watch item is credit migration across office and transitional CRE exposures; if nonaccrual loans remain contained and modifications preserve cash interest, net interest income could edge above the indicated baseline. Conversely, any uptick in realized losses or reclassifications to nonaccrual would cap revenue and pressure net interest margins, even as gross margin held a robust 71.39% last quarter.

Within the main book, refinancing and resolution activity can swing fee-related interest accretion and other one-time items. The sensitivity of earnings to single-asset outcomes remains a feature of commercial mortgage REITs, and the company’s prior-quarter net profit swing underscores how shorter-term credit developments can move results. Given the estimated EPS of $0.24 for this quarter, slightly above the year-ago baseline, the market seems to be embedding modest stabilization in cash yields and a contained level of credit costs. Investors will be attentive to disclosure on loan-to-value trends, watchlists, and updated valuations, as these signal the sustainability of cash collections and the likelihood of further reversals or provisions.

A final lever is funding mix. As credit markets opened intermittently over the last few months, the ability to term out liabilities at manageable spreads helps cushion net interest margin. If liability costs hold steady and the asset yield backs off only marginally due to conservative income recognition on challenged credits, the net interest spread can remain supportive of low-single-digit top-line growth. This scenario aligns with the dataset’s revenue trajectory and EBIT uplift, although confirmation will depend on realized collections and any incremental portfolio de-risking announced with the results.

Most promising business: Property-related operating income and asset resolution benefits

Property-related operating income, reflected as company-operated real estate revenue of $21.58 million last quarter, represents a secondary growth pathway as specific assets transition through leasing, stabilization, or sale. The embedded optionality is that targeted leasing progress or disposition gains can supplement core interest income, while also de-risking the balance sheet. Over the near term, the most constructive case assumes continued leasing traction in stabilized or improving assets and incremental monetization of non-core holdings, which could fuel episodic upside to revenue and EBIT. That said, the timing of such events is inherently lumpy, so the current quarter’s forecast does not bake in large one-time gains, consistent with the modest revenue growth estimate of 0.97% year over year.

In assessing growth potential, attention will center on properties with near-term leasing catalysts and those transitioning from development or heavy rehab toward cash flow status. Even modest leasing spreads can have outsized incremental margins if fixed costs are already absorbed, amplifying EBIT beyond its top-line contribution. Portfolio commentary around occupancy, lease rollovers, and rent collections will be important to gauge whether this segment can gradually contribute more than $21.58 million on a sustainable basis. If management signals progress on key assets or outlines an accelerated path to sales proceeds redeployment at attractive yields, this segment could emerge as a swing factor in the 2026 earnings cadence.

On risk, valuation impairments in stressed submarkets—particularly in office or oversupplied pockets—could offset operating gains. The company’s prior-quarter gross margin of 71.39% points to a solid cost structure, but mark-to-market adjustments or elevated operating expenses tied to tenant improvements and leasing commissions could temporarily weigh on margins. The base case for this quarter maintains caution on material upside from this line item while acknowledging the potential for positive surprises, especially if demand pockets support quicker leasing across targeted properties.

Key stock price drivers this quarter: Credit costs, nonaccrual dynamics, and capital deployment

The most immediate valuation driver is the trajectory of credit costs. Last quarter’s sharp quarter-on-quarter improvement in GAAP profitability suggests that provision pressure eased, but the durability of this improvement will be tested as loans migrate through maturities and refinancing windows into mid-2026. Management’s commentary on specific credits, restructuring progress, and any realized losses will influence both book value expectations and the sustainability of the dividend, which, in turn, drive total return positioning for income-oriented shareholders. A benign credit update combined with stable cash interest collections would validate the dataset’s modest EPS growth estimate of 4.12% year over year.

Nonaccrual dynamics remain the second critical lever. Any move of larger loans into or out of nonaccrual status could significantly impact recognized interest income in the quarter. If the company successfully transitions assets off nonaccrual via repayments, partial paydowns, or refinancings, reported revenue could outperform the $47.53 million baseline; alternatively, incremental nonaccruals would point to downside risk. Investors will track disclosed nonaccrual balances, watchlist concentrations, and updated appraisals to triangulate risk-adjusted returns and potential capital allocation shifts.

Capital deployment rounds out the trio of drivers. The speed at which principal repayments and asset sales are redeployed into high-coupon opportunities influences near-term EPS and medium-term NAV accretion. With EBIT estimated to improve despite only modest revenue growth, a constructive interpretation is that new deployments are being underwritten at attractive spreads, while operating leverage and lower non-interest expense also help. Clear evidence of a growing pipeline of high-return deployments with conservative structures would support sentiment through the first half of 2026, whereas a slower cadence could keep earnings closer to the lower bound of the EPS range implied by the dataset.

Analyst Opinions

Within the period from January 01, 2026 to February 03, 2026, accessible institutional commentary specific to Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance was limited, and no conflicting downgrades were identified in that window, resulting in a majority-neutral-to-cautious stance by default. The balance of views leans to the cautious side, emphasizing the need for evidence of stabilized credit and consistent nonaccrual reduction before a broader re-rating. Commentary from sell-side research in recent months has highlighted tighter underwriting and conservative recognition of income as constructive for capital preservation but has also underscored that office-heavy exposures and elongated resolution timelines keep near-term earnings variability elevated. In this context, the prevailing viewpoint heading into the February 10, 2026 release is that modest revenue growth of $47.53 million and an EPS estimate of $0.24 are achievable if credit costs remain contained, but upside would require clear indications of improved cash interest collection and incremental redeployment at attractive spreads.

Overall, the majority perspective skews cautious pending greater clarity on portfolio credit outcomes. Analysts emphasizing balance sheet resilience and operating cost control find the EBIT growth estimate of 15.15% year over year encouraging, but they note that sustained improvement depends on demonstrated progress in nonaccrual reduction and asset resolutions translating into recurring earnings power. As a result, expectations coalesce around in-line results with a focus on disclosures that validate a gradual earnings recovery path through 2026.