For stock trading, check the Jinlinqi analyst research reports - authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, helping you uncover potential thematic opportunities! Last week, A-shares experienced a volatile pullback. With only 3 trading days left before the National Day holiday, how will the market perform? Pengpai News collected views from 10 brokerages. Most brokerages believe that before the holiday, the market is in a game stage between key window catalysts and short-term trading constraints, and investors should remain optimistic during the market's hesitation period. There is no strong need to further reduce positions in the remaining three trading days before the holiday; on the contrary, doing so could easily miss potential rebound opportunities after the holiday.

CITIC Securities: Stay optimistic during the market's hesitation period. U.S. stocks reached new highs driven by a new round of application diffusion and hardware repair, and external markets should no longer be considered as a factor affecting A-shares. Although sentiment is temporarily relatively subdued, the judgment of a volatile A-share market for the year is maintained. The period around the third-quarter earnings report is the last offensive window of the year, and the probability of index recovery within the year is actually much greater than hitting new lows. In fact, with an upward profit trend, materialized macro risks, and already depressed sentiment, the possibility of a significant index adjustment is very small. At the same time, the conditions for Shanghai Composite Index recovery are not as harsh as imagined. Scenario testing of 5 possible paths for Shanghai Composite Index recovery within the year shows that, in line with industrial prosperity and considering limited short-term incremental funds, an upward structure led by technology leaders, resource energy and chemicals, and financial heavyweights best balances fundamentals and liquidity. Investors should remain optimistic during the market's hesitation period, and in terms of allocation, respond with AI plus energy and chemicals.

Guotai Haitong Securities: The overall bubble level in A-shares is relatively light. The overall bubble level in A-shares is relatively light, and stocks with localized microstructural issues need some time to digest. The proportion of financial assets in A-share non-financial enterprises is not high, but the dependence of emerging industry capital expenditure on financing has risen to a historical high, and continuous capital expenditure needs attention. Although the secondary market shows some signs of overheating, the scale of capital market financing is not extreme; at the same time, the proportion of important shareholders' reductions in tradable market value is relatively low, and individual investor participation has not reached the level of historical bubble periods. After the pullback, A-share forward valuations are already low, and the prosperous growth of technology manufacturing is still accelerating. In summary, the overall bubble level in A-shares is relatively light, and valuation adjustments for stocks with localized microstructural issues have been relatively sufficient. They still need time to digest trading-side pressure, after which stock prices are expected to strengthen again. In terms of allocation, microstructural issues in A-shares exist only in localized targets, and there has not yet been obvious divergence among individual, institutional, and major shareholder trading behavior. It is recommended to diversify allocations appropriately, while remaining optimistic about allocation opportunities in the technology sector driven by the AI industry, focusing on the domestic computing power chain benefiting from the improvement of domestic AI capabilities and policy support, as well as scarce links such as hardware and materials where industrial bargaining power is marginally rising.

Galaxy Securities: The focus of the market remains structural and rotational recovery. Before the holiday, the market is in a game stage between key window catalysts and short-term trading constraints, with rapid market rotation. The consensus reached in China-U.S. economic and trade consultations and the eight-point outcomes provides important support for pre-holiday market risk appetite, but the funding side may still be constrained by the cross-holiday risk premium superimposed on third-quarter-end institutional assessment constraints. Looking after the holiday, the trading factors that previously suppressed the market will ease, and market expectations are expected to gradually recover, but there are many overseas disturbances, and the market is more likely to favor structural rotation. Focus can be placed on three major aspects. First, at the funding level, funds that stood on the sidelines before the holiday for risk-avoidance purposes will gradually return, which will improve market trading activity at the margin. However, there are many overseas disturbances, and the migration of household savings to the equity market requires a clearer wealth effect to catalyze it. The conditions for short-term incremental entry still need time to observe. At the pricing logic level, the market enters the third-quarter earnings verification window in October. Second, at the policy level, expectations for stable growth and stable market policies in the fourth quarter are rising. In the third-quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China, the monetary policy tone deleted the expression "cross-cycle" and placed greater emphasis on "counter-cyclical" adjustment. The meeting proposed for the first time to strengthen financial support for the construction of the "six networks," and the current important policy increment focuses on the layout of the six networks. Policy signals on the real estate side are intensively catalyzing, and attention should be paid to the pace of subsequent detailed rules and room for policy relaxation in core cities. Third, in terms of external risks, key disturbance variables need to be tracked: first, high U.S. Treasury yields will continue to disturb global high-valuation growth assets; second, repeated overseas geopolitical conflicts drive international oil price fluctuations, while indirectly strengthening upward pressure on U.S. Treasury rates through inflation expectations; as the U.S. midterm elections approach, overseas political uncertainty may amplify short-term market volatility. Overall, A-shares are expected to show a recovery trend, but the focus of the market may still be structural and rotational recovery.

GF Securities: There is no strong need to cut positions before the holiday. Corresponding to the remaining three trading days before the holiday, at this position, there is no strong need to further reduce positions; on the contrary, doing so could easily miss potential rebound opportunities after the holiday. After the market shrank by 50% from its July high, volume has stabilized somewhat; after the holiday, trading volume is expected to recover, and at this position, a valid rebound is more likely to occur. In addition to the "calendar effect," historical post-holiday market performance is mainly affected by incremental information during the holiday. Looking ahead to the economic and policy environment at home and abroad in 2026, the market has already fully anticipated and priced in several negative factors, and it is expected that news during the 2026 National Day period will most likely be stable. Historically, in the first week after the holiday, TMT has the highest probability of outperforming the broad A-share market among major style indices. Combined with this year's actual style performance, the market in October is expected to gradually return to prosperity-based pricing, so if the growth style adjusts again in the final week before the holiday, it will provide a rare allocation opportunity for the fourth quarter. In terms of allocation, priority should be given to the AI industry chain with high third-quarter prosperity, as well as segmented alpha in non-AI areas.

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities: Volatile consolidation. In the short term, the market remains highly sensitive to oil prices, U.S. Treasury yields, and Fed rate hike expectations. The medium-term outlook remains unchanged. Neither technology nor non-technology can yet become the structural mainline for rebuilding a major wave market, and investors should calmly face the stage where no breakthrough direction can be found for the time being. The tone for the remainder of 2026 leans toward a period of volatile consolidation. The current effective AI chain aesthetic remains unchanged: first, a few directions whose fundamental expectations can exceed those at the end of June (CPO and a small number of new computing power inflation catalyzed by GPT 6, price transmission in the PCB industry chain, etc.). Second, directions where 2027 prosperity continues to improve relative to 2026, verified by third-quarter reports at the end of October, and which may strengthen divergently after earnings digest valuations. Focus on storage, high-end CCL, PCB, and capacitors. Third, value thematic investment in both technology and non-technology. The current situation resembles the first half of 2014: short-term adjustment, medium-term volatile consolidation, and extension of the wave band. Greater attention should be paid to technology and non-technology themes. The unfolding of technology themes is a process of brewing a new-stage investment mainline. In the short term, the market faces headwinds, and the market has not fully explored AI industry progress. This leaves room for thematic rotation in the subsequent rebound stage. The time for non-technology directions to outperform lengthens, and the time for high-dividend assets to generate absolute returns also lengthens. In non-technology tracks, short-term volatility also increases, but the medium-term key directions remain unchanged: CXO, innovative drugs, coal, shipping, precious metals, industrial metals, and basic chemicals. High dividends and technology tracks show a "seesaw effect." Continue to look for high-dividend assets based on "CSI 800 Index weight minus second-quarter 2026 public fund holdings weight," focusing on banks, non-bank financials, food and beverages, and utilities.

China Merchants Securities: Maintain a neutral-to-bullish position. Before and after the long holiday, it is appropriate to maintain a neutral-to-bullish position, balancing prosperous growth and high-dividend defense. Although there is a tendency toward recovery after the National Day holiday, pre-holiday front-running weakens the reference value of the calendar effect. Last week, U.S. technology outperformed while A-share growth came under pressure, suggesting that in addition to external interest rate disturbances, the adjustment was also affected by internal factors such as profit-taking and筹码 exchange. Overseas AI model performance improvements and lower inference costs continue to support industrial demand expansion. Considering that holiday geopolitical conditions, oil prices, and U.S. economic data may still disturb rate hike expectations, it is appropriate to retain core AI allocations with strong profit support, paired with high-dividend assets with stable dividends.

Guosen Securities: Continue volatile and rotational trading. The A-share market will welcome the National Day holiday. With the cross-holiday risk premium superimposed on third-quarter-end institutional assessment constraints, the market may continue volatile and rotational trading. At present, on the one hand, among the external factors that previously disturbed the market, the impact of overseas interest rates has marginally weakened, while geopolitical tail risks and energy inflation effects are still recurring. On the other hand, positive expectations for China-U.S. interaction, domestic policy, and technology industry trends are gradually accumulating. In addition to seasonal factors, the key factors affecting subsequent market performance are gradually shifting from partial digestion of peripheral risks to whether the above positive factors can form a relay. In terms of allocation, investors are advised to pay attention to three main lines: first, with the recent密集 of industry conferences and marginal convergence of external disturbances, focus on high-prosperity and verifiable performance directions such as semiconductors and the AI computing power industry chain. Second, with the "six networks" as an important抓手, pay attention to links such as power grids, energy storage/power supporting facilities, building materials, and construction machinery. Third, overseas high interest rates and energy risks have not yet been cleared, and dividend stocks still have allocation value.

Everbright Securities: Before the holiday, the market is likely to continue a volatile consolidation pattern. Before the holiday, the market is likely to continue a volatile consolidation pattern. On the one hand, after the Fed rate hike "boot lands," the external liquidity concerns that previously suppressed the market have been temporarily alleviated; China-U.S. economic and trade consultations have released positive signals; domestic stable growth policies continue to exert force, and the central bank's liquidity support attitude is clear; August production-side data improved, providing fundamental support for the market. On the other hand, under the Fed's hawkish stance, rate hike expectations still exist within the year, and the constraint of the overseas high interest rate environment on valuations of high-valuation growth sectors is difficult to eliminate in the short term; domestic consumption is weak, and internal demand recovery still requires further policy efforts; with the double holiday approaching, willingness to enter the market is insufficient, and pre-holiday trading is likely to remain缩量. In terms of allocation, focus on three balanced directions. First, hard technology tracks. Focus on semiconductors, AI, high-end manufacturing, and other fields with core technical barriers and domestic substitution logic. These sectors benefit both from the upward cycle of the global technology industry and from the policy orientation of national scientific and technological innovation and self-controllability, with strong growth certainty and valuation elasticity. Second, the policy chain, that is, layout along key directions of policy efforts, covering the consumption chain, real estate chain, infrastructure chain, and various segmented fields. Third, other sectors with bottom-up prosperity, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials. These industries rely more on their own fundamental logic to generate independent performance, do not depend on strong macroeconomic policy stimulus, and can provide certain excess returns amid market volatility.

Zheshang Securities: The intermediate rebound is still expected to continue. Although the market pulled back last week due to the holiday effect, considering factors such as the international situation, global stock index trends, and the technical patterns of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, we are not pessimistic about the market outlook, and the intermediate rebound that began in mid-September is still expected to continue. The Shanghai Composite Index still holds the lower edge of the 3850-4000 range and still has momentum for volatile rebound; the Sci-Tech 50's largest rebound in the past two weeks approached 13%, and last week's pullback still falls within the category of a strong adjustment; during the same period, the leading Hang Seng Tech Index has already shown obvious bottoming characteristics. In terms of timing, maintain the current medium-line position unchanged, do not be affected by the holiday effect before the holiday, and appropriately increase allocations on dips after the holiday. In terms of industries, it is recommended to choose sectors and industries that fell more in the earlier period, such as ChiNext and STAR Market, Hang Seng Tech, non-bank financials, media, and computers, and appropriately balance allocations, continuing to participate in this rebound with a balanced structure.

East Money Securities: Not pessimistic about the A-share market after the holiday. Although the market may have some risk-avoidance sentiment before the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, after comprehensive assessment, we are not pessimistic about the A-share market after the holiday. First, the rise in U.S. Treasury yields has not transmitted to Chinese Treasury yields, and it is not the main contradiction in A-share pricing. Second, the outcomes of the meeting between Chinese and U.S. heads of state have landed. Third, the AI industry is still evolving, and Meta Muse's C-end paid commercialization through traffic entry is worth continued attention and tracking. Fourth, before the U.S. midterm elections and Anthropic IPO, overseas market risk appetite is likely to remain supported, and the October Fed rate hike has recently been priced by the market as a high-probability event, so short-term unexpected negative shocks are expected to be limited. Therefore, after the A-share market gradually digests external uncertainties in the near term, it is expected to stabilize. In the next stage, investors can actively explore investment opportunities. In terms of allocation, investors are advised to seek progress while maintaining stability, allocate to dividend assets, pay attention to valuation repair opportunities in high-quality blue chips, and at the same time select directions with relatively high comprehensive win-rate, odds, and cost-effectiveness within growth directions.