This week’s key economic data releases, ranked by importance, include: the US Oct-Nov Nonfarm Payroll Report, US November CPI data, ECB rate decision, BOJ rate decision, and BOE rate decision. Below is a detailed analysis.

On Tuesday at 21:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the combined Oct-Nov Nonfarm Payroll Report. Due to the government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, data collection was incomplete, leading to a merged report instead of separate monthly figures. The prior reading was 119K, while the forecast stands at 35K, reflecting market pessimism. The November ADP employment report showed a decline of 32K, signaling labor market contraction. If the Nonfarm data meets expectations, it would confirm a weakening US job market, increasing the likelihood of deeper Fed rate cuts in 2026 and further pressuring the dollar.

On Thursday at 21:30, the US November CPI annual rate will be published. October CPI data was skipped due to insufficient collection, leaving no prior or consensus estimates. However, some institutions project both core and headline CPI at 3.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from September’s 3%. With the Fed having cut rates three times this year (totaling 75bps), loose monetary policy could drive inflation higher, making the 3.2% forecast plausible.

At 21:15 on Thursday, the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged. Eurozone Q3 GDP grew at 1.4% YoY, down from 1.6%, indicating sluggish growth. Core inflation held steady at 2.4% for three months, while unemployment remained at 6.4% for six months. Stable inflation and employment suggest no immediate need for ECB rate cuts.

On Friday at 11:00, the BOJ is widely anticipated to hike rates by 25bps to 0.75%. Market confidence stems from officials’ recent tacit approval of tightening. The 1-year Japanese government bond yield at 0.82% (32bps above the policy rate) aligns with a 25bps hike expectation.

At 20:00 on Thursday, the BOE may cut rates by 25bps to 3.75%, diverging from the ECB’s likely pause. UK core inflation fell to 3.4% in October, marking three months of decline. With four out of nine MPC members favoring cuts in November, one more vote could trigger a December reduction. Historically, the BOE adopts a “one cut, one pause” approach, minimizing GBP volatility.

Risk Disclaimer: Markets involve risks; invest cautiously. The above represents analyst views only, not investment advice. Analyst opinions may change without notice.