私募基金管理公司股价周二大幅下挫，市场担忧人工智能的兴起将重创其对软件公司的投资布局。
Ares Management与Blue Owl Capital股价暴跌逾9%，阿波罗全球管理与KKR跌幅均超7%，黑石集团也下挫超过5%。此番抛售潮源于软件类上市公司股票与债券的急剧下跌——分析师担忧，随着企业转向AI技术解决方案，部分传统软件企业可能面临被淘汰的风险。
过去十年间，私募股权公司及其背后日益壮大的私募信贷基金大举押注软件行业。巴克莱研究数据显示，软件投资目前约占业务开发公司（BDC）投资组合的20%，而2016年该比例仅为10%左右。BDC作为一种快速增长的私募信贷基金形式，正成为行业风向标。
Blue Owl资本曾是"经常性收入"贷款模式的积极倡导者。该公司与其他机构曾押注企业客户因技术系统转换成本高昂，难以终止"粘性"软件合约。然而AI编程技术的快速普及（尤其是Anthropic公司的Claude模型）正在颠覆这一逻辑。
数据显示，Blue Owl旗下上市BDC近一周跌幅达10%，Ares管理的某基金同期下跌5%。软件行业危机与近期BDC抛售潮形成叠加效应——后者由企业贷款涉嫌欺诈引发的违约担忧所触发。
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