Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited released a research report stating that China's express delivery service companies handled approximately 12.11 billion parcels in February 2026, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 10.9%. The negative growth in business volume was primarily due to the timing shift of the Spring Festival holiday. When combining data from January and February, the total business volume showed a year-on-year increase of approximately 7.1%. Since the Singles' Day shopping festival in 2025, demand has been slightly lower than expected, creating some pressure on the industry. However, the per-parcel revenue for the Tongda group of express companies has remained at relatively high levels, reflecting the strong supportive effect of anti-internal competition measures on pricing within the express delivery sector. The intensity and sustainability of these anti-internal competition efforts in 2026 are expected to exceed expectations. The industry is currently in the early stages of an upward cycle, with profitability anticipated to continue recovering in the subsequent period.

Key viewpoints from Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited are as follows: Anti-internal competition measures continue to take effect, keeping volume growth rates at a relatively low level. Nationwide express delivery service companies handled approximately 12.11 billion parcels in February 2026, a year-on-year decrease of about 10.9%. Combining January and February data to eliminate the Spring Festival timing distortion results in a year-on-year growth of approximately 7.1% for total business volume. The high base from the same period last year, coupled with the strengthened anti-internal competition policies implemented since the second half of last year, has led the industry to gradually shift its focus from quantity to quality, resulting in business volume growth remaining at a low level. SF Express's parcel volume growth in February was significantly higher than the industry average. SF Express typically performs strongly during the Spring Festival period, which is considered a normal occurrence. Among the Tongda group companies, YTO Express and STO Express maintained growth rates above the industry average. YTO Express demonstrated a strong desire to capture market share, while STO Express benefited from volume growth following the consolidation of Daniao. Yunda Holdings experienced lower volume growth.

In terms of pricing, the industry's average per-parcel price in February 2026 increased by 12.2% year-on-year. Considering the combined per-parcel price for January and February, the 2026 figure increased by approximately 0.8% compared to the same period in 2025. Due to the impact of anti-internal competition, it is expected that the industry's per-parcel revenue level for this year can be maintained or show a slight increase compared to last year. Within the Tongda group, STO Express and Yunda Holdings achieved year-on-year increases in per-parcel revenue of 19.6% and 15.4% respectively in February, demonstrating the beneficial effect of anti-internal competition on industry pricing. The price increase for STO Express is also partly linked to the consolidation of Daniao. YTO Express's per-parcel revenue increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with the lower growth rate mainly attributable to a high base from the same period last year. On a month-on-month basis, the unit prices for STO Express, Yunda Holdings, and YTO Express increased by 3.8%, 4.7%, and 6.7% respectively in February. SF Express's per-parcel revenue increased by 6.8% year-on-year and 4.1% month-on-month. Combined with its high parcel volume growth, SF Express achieved growth in both volume and price in February, resulting in a relatively strong overall performance.

Investment recommendations suggest that as industry growth slows, the importance of the existing market becomes more prominent. The logic of price competition may change, with service quality improvement being elevated to a more critical position. This shift is conducive to achieving high-quality and sustainable development. It is recommended to focus on leading companies with superior service quality, such as ZTO EXPRESS-W and YTO Express, as well as STO Express, which has shown significant improvement in operational data.

Risk warnings include intensified price competition within the industry, the duration of anti-internal competition efforts falling short of expectations, rising labor costs, and changes in regulatory policies.