Humanoid Robots: The Next Trillion-Dollar Arena—Hyundai Challenges Tesla with Atlas

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9 hours ago

When Hyundai Motor Company Chairman Euisun Chung appeared on stage with the robotic dog Spot at the 2022 Consumer Electronics Show, an audience member asked when the company might drop the word "Motor" from its name. That moment may have arrived. At last month's CES in Las Vegas, Hyundai stole the spotlight with its humanoid robot, Atlas. During the demonstration, the robot displayed remarkably fluid, human-like agility: it stood up on its own, walked freely across the stage, and executed precise rotations of its torso and head with strikingly natural movements. The market response was enthusiastic, driving Hyundai's stock price up 80% in the following two weeks.

While global attention remains fixed on Elon Musk’s long-promised Optimus robot and the artificial intelligence race between the U.S. and China, Hyundai has quietly positioned itself as a frontrunner in the humanoid robotics field. For automakers like Tesla Motors (TSLA) and Hyundai, the underlying technology of humanoid robots closely mirrors that of electric vehicles: both are battery-powered, motor-controlled, and navigated via sensors and AI. This allows them to leverage their technical expertise and manufacturing capabilities to gain an early advantage in a market that Morgan Stanley estimates could reach $5 trillion by 2050—with over 1 billion humanoid robots potentially in use worldwide.

Although the initial goal is to deploy humanoid robots on assembly lines to reduce labor costs, the potential market is vast as robots expand into warehousing, manufacturing, and eventually eldercare and home assistance. Hyundai, known for producing affordable and durable vehicles, has invested billions in its robotics division since acquiring Boston Dynamics, the developer of Spot, in 2021. It has also actively recruited top talent from companies like Tesla and Nvidia.

Against the backdrop of dramatic shifts in the global auto industry, Hyundai’s pivot toward robotics may be a strategic necessity. As the transition to electric vehicles faces headwinds, American and European automakers are reporting billions in losses. Meanwhile, tariff policies under the Trump administration and the rise of Chinese manufacturers are putting pressure on Hyundai in the world’s two largest auto markets. In addition, repeated delays in the rollout of its autonomous and robo-taxi platforms, despite years of heavy investment, have added to the company’s challenges.

From a technical standpoint, Atlas is a marvel: it features human-proportioned hands with tactile sensing capabilities and fully rotatable joints. It can carry loads of up to 50 kilograms and operate in extreme temperatures ranging from -20°C to 40°C. Hyundai plans to deploy Atlas first in highly repetitive tasks, such as preparing automotive parts, by 2028, and then move to more complex assembly work by 2030.

James Hong, an analyst at Macquarie Securities Korea, believes that with a clear deployment timeline and Hyundai’s extensive manufacturing infrastructure, the company is well-positioned to set a new benchmark for the commercialization of humanoid robots. “They have the right ingredients and a management team that knows how to execute,” Hong said. “Execution and speed are critical, of course, but the reality is that most global automakers don’t even start with those basic elements.”

Analysts view Atlas as a strong challenger to Tesla’s Optimus, citing superior technical specifications—including higher load capacity, readiness for mass production, and strategic partnerships with Nvidia and Google DeepMind. They note that Atlas will help Hyundai cut labor costs, which account for about 10% of its revenue, by enabling 24/7 operation and improving worker safety and efficiency on production lines.

It is important to note, however, that Chinese manufacturers currently dominate the humanoid robot market. According to research firm Omdia, Chinese companies produced the vast majority of the approximately 13,000 humanoid robots shipped globally last year. Chinese models are also more affordable: Unitree’s latest robot sells for just $4,900, while a simplified version from Zhiyuan Robot costs around $14,000.

Although Hyundai has not yet disclosed pricing, Samsung Securities analyst Esther Yim noted that Boston Dynamics briefed analysts during CES, indicating an initial price between $130,000 and $140,000—a level that would allow recovery of investment costs within two years. Yim added that prices could drop by up to 50% once production exceeds 10,000 units.

Macquarie’s Hong pointed out that if the price falls to $100,000, Atlas’s operating cost would be about $5.1 per hour. That is below the U.S. federal minimum wage of $7.25 and significantly lower than the typical $20–$38 hourly wage in auto factories. He suggested that by the time of initial deployment in 2028, humanoid robots could replace 3–4 million assembly workers worldwide.

These figures have excited investors. In the two weeks following Atlas’s debut, Hyundai’s share price surged to an all-time high, briefly surpassing General Motors to become the world’s fourth most valuable automaker by market capitalization. Although the stock has since retreated from its peak, the release of a video earlier this month showing Atlas performing cartwheels and backflips—highlighting its dexterity and lifelike movements—provided another boost.

DAOL Investment & Securities analyst Yoo Jiwoong emphasized that Atlas’s 50 kg payload sets it apart; by comparison, Optimus and Figure AI’s robots have a 20 kg capacity. This makes Atlas the only humanoid robot suitable for deployment across all manufacturing environments, including heavy-duty auto plants.

That said, Tesla benefits from its end-to-end platform, which avoids reliance on external suppliers, while Hyundai depends on Nvidia chips and third-party AI developers. Analysts such as Choi TaeYong of DS Investment & Securities warn that the so-called “Nvidia tax” and payments to other suppliers could erode Hyundai’s margins. “But even if Tesla produces 1 million humanoid robots per year by 2030, that won’t be enough to meet global demand,” Choi said. “The market needs a strong runner-up to fill the gap and benefit from technology spillover—and Hyundai is at the forefront of that competition.”

KB Securities analyst Kang Seongjin and others noted that recent footage of Atlas shows it can quickly recover from failed jumps or imperfect landings, indicating it has reached a level where it can be deployed in industrial settings without on-site training and can respond autonomously to unexpected situations in real-world environments. “Hyundai is the most prominent alternative to share in the future value of autonomy and robotics, long dominated by Tesla,” Kang said. “It has a clear robotics vision, yet its market cap is only one-twentieth of Tesla’s, making it an attractive investment in the field of physical AI.”

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