Earning Preview: IONQ Inc. this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 306.65%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

IONQ Inc. will report quarterly results on February 25, 2026, Post Market; this preview compiles the latest forecasts, reviews the prior quarter’s performance, and highlights segment dynamics and analyst views shaping expectations into the print.

Market Forecast

Forecast data indicate IONQ Inc. is expected to deliver revenue of 40.39 million in the current quarter, a 306.65% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EPS around -0.33 and a year-over-year change of -30.58%. No market gross margin or net margin forecasts are available in the latest dataset, and EBIT is projected at -136.98 million with a year-over-year change of -221.24%. The main business mix observed last quarter—approximately 54.14% from quantum computing and networking hardware and 45.86% from platform, consulting, and support services—implies a balanced revenue base; forecasts suggest continued momentum driven by ongoing customer deployments and scaling activity across both buckets. Within that mix, quantum computing and networking hardware appears best positioned by revenue contribution at 21.58 million last quarter, with company-wide revenue growth running at 221.50% year over year in the prior quarter as a reference backdrop.

Last Quarter Review

IONQ Inc. last reported revenue of 39.87 million, up 221.50% year over year, with a gross profit margin of 47.99%, a GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of -1.06 billion, an implied net profit margin that turned sharply negative, and adjusted EPS of -0.17 reflecting 29.17% year-over-year improvement. The quarter-on-quarter change in net profit registered at -496.57%, signaling a markedly wider bottom-line loss into the period. Operationally, revenue outpaced expectations and continued to scale despite the heavier operating loss indicated by EBIT of -168.81 million, which declined 217.71% year over year. Main business performance remained balanced: quantum computing and networking hardware generated 21.58 million and platform, consulting, and support services generated 18.28 million, supporting the total’s 221.50% year-over-year increase.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main revenue engine and execution levers

The core of IONQ Inc.’s outlook this quarter is anchored in the company’s continued revenue scaling from 39.87 million last quarter to an estimated 40.39 million, with a striking 306.65% year-over-year comparison implied by current forecasts. That growth trajectory suggests the company is translating previously announced customer wins and capacity scaling into booked revenue, while maintaining a product-and-services balance that supports gross margin stability around last quarter’s demonstrated 47.99% baseline. Since explicit gross margin and net margin guidance is not available for this quarter, investors will likely infer margin outcomes from product mix, the cadence of platform and services usage, and any cost items tied to technology upgrades or integration activities. Adjusted EPS is forecast at -0.33, with a year-over-year change of -30.58%. This profile indicates the quarter could emphasize scale-up and delivery milestones over earnings leverage, given EBIT is also modeled at -136.98 million with a year-over-year change of -221.24%. The company’s ability to hold gross margin near recent levels, while containing operating expenses, will shape whether bottom-line performance can narrow losses relative to the depth indicated by EBIT trends. With last quarter’s net profit margin distorted by a large GAAP loss, investors will parse non-GAAP indicators and cash operating trends for underlying momentum, particularly any signals that recurring revenue from services is expanding as a proportion of total revenue.

Most promising business line and growth drivers

Within the company’s revenue mix, quantum computing and networking hardware carries the largest contribution by dollars at 21.58 million last quarter, representing approximately 54.14% of total revenue. This concentration aligns the current quarter outlook with the pace of hardware deployments and upgrades, as delivery schedules and system availability can meaningfully influence both the quarterly revenue print and gross margin trajectory. The services side—platform, consulting, and support—contributed 18.28 million last quarter and remains critical to usage ramp and customer retention; however, hardware performance is poised to disproportionately impact near-term revenue optics given its larger share. Recent corporate actions reported during the current year’s window add further context to growth drivers. In particular, the announcement that IONQ Inc. will acquire SkyWater Technology in a roughly 1.80 billion cash-and-stock transaction provides a roadmap for augmenting the hardware pipeline and enhancing control over strategic components and manufacturing processes. While the transaction’s closing timeline and integration specifics will factor more heavily into subsequent quarters, its strategic thrust suggests an emphasis on operational depth and scalability that can underpin the hardware segment’s revenue durability. As the current quarter unfolds, investors will be attentive to any commentary around hardware shipment cadence, lead times, and the potential for earlier-than-expected benefits from procurement or production efficiencies.

What will likely drive the stock this quarter

Three elements stand out as likely stock drivers into the earnings day: revenue acceleration versus expectations, gross margin resilience versus last quarter’s 47.99% benchmark, and the scale of operating loss relative to the -136.98 million EBIT forecast. A headline revenue beat—either through stronger hardware deliveries or higher-than-anticipated services usage—would validate the 306.65% year-over-year growth profile embedded in current estimates and could shift sentiment on the pace of commercial traction. Conversely, any revenue mix that significantly skews toward lower-margin items, or any unplanned cost items that push gross margin below the recent level, could weigh on the path to operating leverage. On earnings quality, investors will home in on adjusted EPS versus the -0.33 forecast and on signals about future operating expense discipline. Because the prior quarter’s GAAP net loss was unusually large relative to revenue, clarity around non-recurring items, fair-value adjustments, or integration-related charges will be essential to triangulate the underlying cash profile. Commentary on the services revenue runway—platform utilization, contracted support, and multi-quarter engagement scope—could also influence the stock given its potential to smooth seasonality and reinforce recurring revenue visibility. Strategically, the announced plan to acquire SkyWater Technology is likely to frame post-earnings discussions. Beyond the headline purchase price, the market will probe expected cost synergies, capital needs, and go-to-market advantages that might benefit hardware scaling and delivery assurance. Any disclosure that quantifies revenue capture or margin normalization benefits over the next few quarters would be pivotal for sentiment. Investors may also watch for updates on the sequencing of integration milestones and whether the transaction timeline supports earlier consolidation of capabilities that affect hardware throughput. In the absence of detailed gross margin guidance, these strategic signals will be a key lens for how the stock trades on and after February 25, 2026.

Analyst Opinions

The compiled views during the current period show a majority bullish stance. Based on items within the permitted timeframe, bullish opinions account for 100% of identifiable calls, with no bearish reports found. One notable call comes from Mizuho Securities, where analyst Vijay Rakesh reiterated a Buy rating and set a 90.00 price target, underscoring confidence in the company’s execution roadmap into the 2026 earnings cycle. The bullish perspective rests on three interlocking points. The first is revenue scaling: the forecast calling for 40.39 million in quarterly revenue and a 306.65% year-over-year increase reflects robust momentum that, if matched or exceeded, reinforces the top-line growth vector underpinning the model. This setup often leads analysts to prioritize the durability of bookings and the cadence of deliveries, particularly on the hardware side, as leading indicators for subsequent quarters. Analysts tend to view the services base as an engagement engine that supports broader adoption, which, coupled with balanced contribution across the mix, can sustain elevated growth rates even as absolute revenue levels rise. The second pillar is operating leverage potential and margin evolution. While current forecasts indicate an EBIT loss of -136.98 million and adjusted EPS of -0.33, the market will parse any evidence that gross margins can remain near the last quarter’s 47.99% and that opex growth is moderating in proportion to revenue. Bullish analysts generally accept heavier near-term investment provided the company demonstrates line of sight to stabilizing margins, improved unit economics, and increasing scale efficiencies as system deliveries expand. This viewpoint is sensitive to management’s comments on cost controls, procurement, and any trajectory toward narrowing losses on a sequential basis. The third pillar is strategic execution, especially around M&A and capability consolidation. The plan to acquire SkyWater Technology for roughly 1.80 billion is seen by bullish analysts as a lever for supply chain assurance and technology depth that could, over time, support both delivery reliability and margin outcomes. In this framework, the acquisition is not merely additive; it serves to reduce operational bottlenecks, align production with roadmap priorities, and potentially compress development cycles that matter for commercialization. Analysts will be looking for management to articulate the integration timeline, the expected financial contours—qualitative if quantitative guidance is not available—and how the combined setup supports upcoming deliveries. A coherent narrative here can help the market discount future scale and support elevated growth multiples. In sum, the majority viewpoint expects IONQ Inc. to reaffirm its growth trajectory with a strong revenue print and to provide sufficient visibility on margin and operating cadence to keep confidence intact. The upside case, as reflected in the reiterated Buy and a 90.00 price target, hinges on sustained execution across both hardware and services, stable gross margin dynamics, and measured progress on strategic initiatives that reinforce delivery and cost structure over the next few quarters.