DFZQ has released a research report indicating that May's import and export growth, calculated in US dollars, was 22.6%, up 3.9 percentage points month-on-month. Within this, export growth was 19.4%, up 5.3 ppts MoM, and import growth was 27.4%, up 2.1 ppts MoM.

With increasing U.S. inventory replenishment demand, lower tariff costs, and steady progress on tax rebate matters, the profitability of cross-border e-commerce companies is expected to improve. Coupled with drivers such as the June Prime Day, Father's Day, the World Cup, and the US 250th Independence Day, a strong performance for Amazon's cross-border e-commerce peak season is anticipated. Optimism is expressed for leading cross-border e-commerce players regarding product innovation and market share gains.

Key Points from the Report

May Exports Accelerated Further, Tech Products Strong, Consumer Goods Improved

Customs data for May shows import/export growth of 22.6% in USD terms, a MoM increase of 3.9 ppts. Export growth was 19.4% (+5.3 ppts MoM), and import growth was 27.4% (+2.1 ppts MoM). The analysis attributes this to several factors: high AI sector momentum driving robust tech product exports, cooling tariff tensions and recovering overseas demand aiding a rebound in consumer goods export growth, and a lower base effect from the previous year.

By region: Exports to the U.S. grew 35% in May, up 24 ppts MoM. Exports to the EU grew 8%, down 6 ppts MoM. Exports to ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa grew 24%, 6%, and 19% respectively, with MoM changes of +9, -8, and +1 ppts. Trade with Belt and Road partner countries grew 13.6% in aggregate.

By category: Integrated circuits, high-tech products, automobiles, and ships continued to show strong momentum. Exports of home appliances, furniture, apparel, and toys grew 9%, 2%, -4%, and -7% respectively, with MoM changes of +2, +6, -2, and +5 ppts.

US Tariff Changes Do Not Alter Trend of Lower Year-on-Year Tariff Costs for Overseas-Focused Sectors in Q2

The U.S. Trade Representative's office has proposed imposing varying import tariffs on 60 trading partners under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, including a proposed 12.5% tariff on Chinese goods. These new tariffs are not yet effective and are subject to a public comment process, with hearings scheduled to start on July 7.

The report views one primary aim of this tariff as replacing the existing 10% tariff imposed under Section 122 of the same Act, which is set to expire on July 24.

Reviewing U.S. tariff trends on Chinese goods for 2025-2026, the report forecasts a significant year-on-year reduction in tariff costs for companies in overseas-facing sectors during Q2, with further profitability recovery expected for these firms.

The Amazon Prime Day annual sales event is scheduled for June 23-26, having previously been held in July for the past five years. The report expects this Prime Day, coinciding with Father's Day (June 21), the World Cup (June 11-July 19), and the US 250th Independence Day (July 4), to boost Amazon's cross-border e-commerce sales during the peak season. Positive Q2 sales and performance are anticipated for relevant companies.

Company-Specific Developments

Anker Innovations has updated its prospectus. In 2025, it held a 14.6% global market share in balcony energy storage (+4.3 ppts), ranking first, with the top three players holding a combined 28.4%. Its portable energy storage market share was 10.2% (+1.5 ppts), ranking third, with the top five holding 66%. Its mobile charging market share was 4.8%, ranking first (up one place from 2024), with the top five holding 15.2%. Strong performance is expected to continue for new products like balcony energy storage, all-in-one computing/storage headphones, and UV printers.

Jinhong Co., Ltd. held a cooperation launch event with Amazon Web Services, focusing on applying related technologies in cross-border social e-commerce business scenarios, fostering deep co-creation and integration, and comprehensively advancing business intelligence upgrades.

Risks Highlighted

Risks include intensified industry competition, potential delays in tariff and tax rebate progress, and fluctuations in exchange rates and ocean freight prices.