The ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz stemming from Middle East conflict is reshaping global shipping patterns, and the Suez Canal is emerging as a clear beneficiary of this shift. Recent official data reveals a substantial rebound in the waterway's financial performance and traffic volumes.

According to figures published by Egypt's state statistics agency, the Suez Canal generated $505 million in revenue during July, marking a 42% year-over-year increase and reaching its highest monthly level since December 2023. The number of vessels transiting the canal also climbed to 1,340 ships, up 27% from the same period last year and showing sequential growth from June's 1,208 transits.

The recovery in traffic is being driven by accelerated adjustments in Middle Eastern energy shipments and global trade routes. With the Strait of Hormuz facing blockages, oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia have redirected a portion of their petroleum exports toward the Red Sea, creating additional demand for Suez Canal passage. Additionally, as several European shipping companies resume Red Sea operations, some vessels that previously opted for the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope are now reconsidering transit through Suez.

The head of the Suez Canal Authority recently stated that full-year revenue for 2026 is projected to reach between $5.8 billion and $6.0 billion, representing a substantial increase from the expected $4.1 billion in 2025. A senior macroeconomic analyst at EFG Hermes also anticipates that the canal's recovery momentum will persist in the coming months, supported by redirected Asian oil export flows and the return of certain shipping services to the Red Sea.

Oil tanker traffic leads recovery with energy shipments as key pillar

The resurgence of the Suez Canal is most evident in tanker traffic. Data shows that 526 oil tankers passed through the canal in July, exceeding June's total of 485 vessels. Following the Hormuz disruption, Middle Eastern producers including Saudi Arabia have been forced to adjust their export pathways, with some crude shipments now moving through the Red Sea and onward via the Suez Canal to reach European buyers.

This transformation is redistributing regional shipping flows across the board. Simultaneously, the return of several European operators to Red Sea routes has encouraged a measurable flow of ships back from the Cape of Good Hope detour. The combination of these factors is generating additional transit demand for the Suez Canal.

Revenue hits recent milestone but still trails pre-crisis levels

Despite the positive trends, the Suez Canal's recovery remains in its early stages. In 2023, the waterway achieved a record-breaking $10.2 billion in annual revenue, and in April of that year, monthly vessel transits peaked at approximately 2,300 ships. By comparison, July's 1,340 transits represent less than 60% of that historic high.

The downturn in canal activity began in early 2024, when escalating security risks in the Red Sea prompted a large-scale shift of vessels to the Cape route, causing transit numbers and revenue to fall dramatically. Traffic levels subsequently languished for an extended period before showing the more pronounced rebound now visible this year.

Consequently, even if this year's revenue reaches the projected $5.8 billion to $6.0 billion, it would still only amount to roughly 60% of the 2023 peak. The Suez Canal is experiencing a phased recovery, but it remains significantly short of a full return to its pre-crisis performance levels.