Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE: LLY) announced on Monday that its oral weight-loss medication Foundayo has already secured more than 30% of new patient starts in the US oral obesity treatment market, chipping away at the early advantage built by Danish rival Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO) with its Wegovy oral tablet.

Lilly's Foundayo hit the US market in early April, roughly three months after Novo Nordisk's competing Wegovy oral pill made its debut. Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Doustdar said in August that despite the competitive pressure from Lilly's oral drug, the company estimated Wegovy oral tablets still held around 90% of the US oral weight-loss market share.

Investors are closely tracking demand for oral weight-loss therapies, which are expected to expand the overall weight-management market by appealing to patients who prefer to avoid injections, while also easing some of the supply constraints tied to injectable treatments. Novo Nordisk said in January that oral medications are projected to account for more than one-third of all GLP-1 weight-loss usage by 2030.

Analysts forecast that by that same year, the global obesity treatment market could surpass $100 billion in annual sales. At the Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conference in New York, Lilly executive vice president Ilya Yuffa noted that the company's injectable GLP-1 weight-loss drug Zepbound has also gained traction among patients through the US government's Medicare weight-loss pilot program launched in July.

Yuffa explained that the pilot initiative allows eligible beneficiaries to access weight-loss medications for a $50 monthly copay, and among those enrolled in the program, 60% to 70% are first-time users of such treatments. Medicare covers approximately 66 million people aged 65 and older or those with disabilities.

Outside the United States, Lilly faces fresh competitive dynamics in India and Canada, where generic versions of Novo Nordisk's blockbuster weight-loss and diabetes medications — Wegovy and Ozempic — are being offered at prices up to 70% lower than the originals. However, Yuffa said the arrival of these generics has actually served to enlarge the overall market. He added: "When the market expands significantly through generics, market share declines. But in those markets, the total volume and absolute sales of Mounjaro are still growing steadily." Mounjaro is the brand name used by Lilly for tirzepatide in obesity and diabetes indications outside the United States.