Abstract

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals will report quarterly results on February 05, 2026 Post Market; we summarize consensus forecasts and company indicators for revenue, profitability, and EPS, alongside the latest institutional sentiment into the print.

Market Forecast

Based on the latest compiled forecasts, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals’ current-quarter expectations include revenue of USD 270.07 million with an estimated year-over-year increase of 171.23%, estimated EBIT of USD 104.53 million with a 221.03% year-over-year increase, and estimated EPS of USD 0.25 with a 157.81% year-over-year increase. While the company does not formally guide gross margin or net margin, the prior-quarter margin mix and 100.00% gross margin on collaboration revenues suggest a margin profile that hinges on milestone recognition; adjusted EPS is expected to improve with higher collaboration revenue recognition and operating leverage on R&D and SG&A.

The company’s main business is partner-driven collaboration revenue that includes large milestones; highlights in the outlook center on the visibility into collaboration agreements and execution toward clinical and regulatory milestones that trigger payments. The most promising segment is the Sarepta collaboration agreement, which generated USD 696.80 million last quarter, and continues to represent the largest lever for revenue recognition when milestones are achieved year over year.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals reported revenue of USD 256.47 million, a gross profit margin of 100.00%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD -23.75 million, a net profit margin of -9.26%, and adjusted EPS of USD -0.18, with year-over-year growth of 86.86% for EPS. Quarter-on-quarter, GAAP net profit improved by 86.45%, reflecting stronger operating performance despite negative bottom-line.

A key business highlight was the substantial collaboration-driven revenue, notably from the Sarepta collaboration agreement, which contributed USD 696.80 million, complemented by USD 130.00 million from Sanofi and USD 2.65 million from global service providers. The main business highlights underscore the concentration in milestone revenue recognition from strategic partners, which drove outperformance versus prior estimates and supported an improving EBIT of USD 44.11 million, above prior expectations.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main collaboration revenue engine

Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals’ principal top-line driver is collaboration and licensing revenue, where milestone timing determines revenue cadence. With the company exiting the last quarter at a 100.00% gross margin due to accounting recognition of high-margin milestones, the near-term outlook depends on the schedule of development, regulatory, and commercial triggers embedded in existing agreements. The forecasted USD 270.07 million revenue points to continued monetization of the collaboration pipeline, and the implied uplift in EBIT and EPS suggests operating expense discipline against the backdrop of milestone inflows. Investors should monitor updates on partnered pipeline progress, as evidence of program advancement typically precedes milestone payments and underpins the high-margin revenue mix.

Most promising segment: Sarepta collaboration

The Sarepta collaboration remains the standout contributor and the largest potential source of upside variability. Last quarter’s USD 696.80 million contribution illustrated the scale of possible milestone recognition when predefined triggers are met. Into this quarter, the magnitude of any further contribution will hinge on clinical and regulatory status changes across partnered assets that could release additional payments. Even if step-down in recognition occurs versus last quarter’s large milestone, the segment’s structural economics support elevated gross margin, and the forecasted USD 0.25 EPS implies that the company’s operating model can translate milestone revenue into bottom-line accretion when R&D and SG&A remain on plan.

Key stock-price swing factors this quarter

The most consequential variable for the share price is the timing and size of milestone revenues across collaboration agreements, given the all-or-nothing nature of recognition. A second determinant is spend trajectory across R&D and SG&A, where any acceleration in internal program investment could offset EBIT despite robust top-line. A third factor is the cadence of clinical and regulatory catalysts disclosed by partners; positive readouts or filings can lift sentiment and forward revenue visibility, while delays would dampen forecasts and elevate perceived risk to out-year milestones.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, the balance of opinion skews constructive, with a greater share of bullish than bearish views citing the durability of collaboration economics and the near-term visibility on milestones. Supportive notes emphasize the improved EBIT trajectory from USD 44.11 million last quarter, the projected USD 104.53 million EBIT this quarter, and the EPS inflection to USD 0.25 on USD 270.07 million of revenue. Bullish analysts argue that the all-in 100.00% gross margin on recognized collaboration revenue can sustain favorable unit economics as long as the partnered pipeline progresses in line with expectations, and they view potential milestone cadence as a near-term catalyst that could validate the revenue and EPS trajectory on February 05, 2026 Post Market.