Orient Securities has released a report stating that space-based solar power features numerous catalysts, substantial market potential, and a robust Chinese supply chain, creating opportunities for leading domestic equipment manufacturers and core material suppliers to secure incremental orders. The scale of photovoltaic capacity construction by Elon Musk's team and the projected global satellite launch volumes indicate vast growth potential. The report recommends focusing on core photovoltaic equipment suppliers benefiting from expansion by overseas leaders, material companies with strong international customer relationships, and key players in the domestic gallium arsenide industry chain. The main views of Orient Securities are as follows:
Space-based solar power is experiencing multiple catalysts, with synchronized momentum domestically and internationally. Overseas, SpaceX founder Elon Musk has proposed a strategic plan to deploy a 100 GW solar-powered AI satellite energy network into space annually, highlighting that space-based solar can power artificial intelligence at low cost and large scale, linking it directly with commercial spaceflight and AI computing. On January 30, 2026, Musk announced a plan to launch one million satellites. Previously, he revealed intentions to build a 100 GW photovoltaic industry chain and has already begun researching domestic supply chains, indicating abundant catalysts for space-based solar development.
Domestically, in the "Proposals for the 16th Five-Year Plan," sixth-generation mobile communication (6G) is defined as a future industry, expected to become a new economic growth driver during the period. China advocates building an integrated "space-air-ground-sea" 6G architecture, requiring deep convergence of terrestrial and satellite networks. Against the backdrop of 6G's development phase, China's satellite launch numbers are anticipated to rise. In January 2026, the China Academy of Radio Sciences applied to the International Telecommunication Union for approval to launch approximately 200,000 satellites. The increasing demand for satellite launches is set to accelerate the industrialization of space-based solar power in China. Driven by these parallel domestic and international efforts, the space-based solar sector is exhibiting high growth momentum.
The market potential for space-based solar power is substantial. Assuming a global annual need to launch 80,000 satellites, with each satellite requiring 100 kW of solar capacity, the annual scale of space-based photovoltaics deployed could reach 8 GW. Currently, gallium arsenide modules are priced as high as 1,000 RMB/W, corresponding to a market value of 8 trillion RMB. Even if technological advancements reduce the cost of space-based solar modules to 100 RMB/W, the market size would still approach 1 trillion RMB. Traditionally utilizing high-cost gallium arsenide components, which are over 1,000 times more expensive than conventional photovoltaic modules, the space environment inherently tolerates higher costs for solar components. Furthermore, as space-based solar power is integral to orbital computing capabilities, the potential for satellite launch volumes remains extensive.
China's photovoltaic supply chain is highly competitive, with optimism directed towards equipment manufacturers with high market share and core material producers. China's PV industry leads globally in both equipment and materials. In equipment, Mayer is one of the few global manufacturers with full-line HJT supply capability. Autowell's string welding machines combine high single-unit capacity, excellent production yield, and intelligent features, holding over 60% market share in the string welder segment. The report is optimistic that leading domestic equipment suppliers will gain incremental orders. Should Musk's PV capacity plans extend upstream to polysilicon and wafer production, the addressable market for Chinese equipment makers could expand further.
In materials, Risen Energy has already shipped tens of thousands of its P-type ultra-thin HJT modules, which utilize 50-micron ultra-thin silicon wester and are suitable for flexible solar wings. First Applied and Hi-UV New Materials are actively developing space-grade encapsulation materials for solar wings. The report anticipates that core material manufacturers will increase shipment volumes to leading overseas customers, thereby driving profit growth.
Investment Recommendation: Focus is recommended on core photovoltaic equipment stocks benefiting from capacity expansion by international leaders: Autowell, Mayer, Jensen, and ST Jingji, among others. Also recommended are core material sector stocks with deep overseas client relationships and key players in the domestic gallium arsenide supply chain: Risen Energy, Junda, First Applied, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Hi-UV New Materials, among others.
Risks include policy implementation falling short of expectations, volatility in raw material prices, satellite launch scales not meeting projections, slower-than-expected development of satellite energy technology, heightened international trade risks, and changes in underlying assumptions affecting forecasts.