Wanlian Securities released a research report stating that the media industry achieved steady revenue growth in 2025 Q1-Q3, with net profit attributable to shareholders showing signs of recovery. Specifically, both revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders saw year-on-year increases in 2025 Q3, while quarter-on-quarter figures displayed cyclical fluctuation patterns. Looking at the development trends of the media industry in 2026, IP and AI remain the two dominant themes. As consumption concepts shift from "functionality" to "emotional value," motivations for self-indulgence, experiential, and socially-driven consumption continue to be unleashed, providing broader conversion potential for the extensibility of IP content and the commercialization of derivatives. Concurrently, in today's digital era, AI has emerged as one of the most transformative technological forces, becoming a focal point of global technological competition, a key future industry sector, and a new engine for economic development. It demonstrates immense potential and vast application prospects, with implementations emerging across various media sub-sectors, driving entirely new developments for the overall market. The main viewpoints of Wanlian Securities are as follows:
1) IP is categorized into two core types: Content-based IP and Image-based IP. The former relies on creative output from the content side, while the latter depends on unique visual symbols. These two IP types can be mutually transformed to explore higher value, and developing IP derivatives is a key method to enhance commercialization. Content-based IP: Cross-form development is becoming normalized, continuously tapping into commercial potential. 1) Literary IP & Film/Television IP: Transitions between literary IP and film/television IP are frequent. Within literary IP, online literature holds a core dominant position, serving as the primary source of creativity and value engine for the literary IP ecosystem. Cross-over collaborations, multi-platform, multi-frequency, and integrated development are becoming standard strategies for online literature IP development. 2) Gaming IP: Game products possess dual core attributes within the IP ecosystem: acting as both a "source supply" and a "carrier receptacle." Their potential for commercial monetization is characterized by strong certainty and vast space. Furthermore, successful gaming IPs possess powerful capabilities for cross-format content derivation, essentially achieving full-scenario user reach and multi-dimensional commercial value realization by building a diversified content matrix. 3) Animation IP: The long-term vitality of animation IP hinges on moving beyond reliance on "content" alone. Through a three-dimensional strategy focusing on characterization, contextualization, and socialization, virtual characters are transformed into emotional carriers that fans can perceive, participate in, and resonate with. This ultimately achieves an upgrade from one-time content consumption to sustained emotional deep engagement, thereby maximizing the commercial value of animation IP.
Image-based IP: The core attributes of the IP itself and its operational strategy work in tandem to realize commercial value and sustain long-term vitality. The depth and breadth of commercial monetization highly depend on core elements such as the recognizability of the IP image, the reach of its audience and geographic coverage, and the diversity of monetization models. The extension of an image-based IP's lifecycle and the sustained maintenance of its popularity require the structured development of a character matrix, continuous updates and iterations of the image, and potential derivation towards content-based IP. IP Derivatives: Centered on the content value or image value of an IP, IP derivatives materialize and commoditize the influence of the IP through various carriers. They serve as vessels for fan emotion and are a crucial link in monetizing content value. IP derivatives refer to peripheral products developed based on influential IPs, emphasizing the multi-scenario extension of the IP's core value. While expanding the IP's influence, they build a commercial closed loop between content creation and the consumer market. In recent years, with the rise of Generation Z consumption and the prevalence of the "emotional value" economy, the IP derivative market has experienced explosive growth. The forms have become increasingly diverse, ranging from simple badges and keychains to complex trendy toys. Among these, "Guzi" merchandise, collectible cards, and blind boxes, as the three core categories, have precisely met the social, entertainment, and identity needs of young demographics through their unique gameplay mechanics and collectible attributes, becoming the most dynamic growth poles in IP commercial operations.
2) AI: In today's digital era, AI has already become one of the most transformative technological forces, a focal point of global tech competition, a key future industry track, and a new driver for economic development. It exhibits tremendous development potential and broad application prospects, with implementations landing across various media sub-sectors, propelling entirely new developments for the overall market. Product End: The AI industry has now spawned applications across multiple tracks and scenarios, showing vigorous development momentum. Products cover 20 tracks including AI assistants, AI companionship, AI cameras, and AI writing, penetrating dimensions such as personal productivity, leisure entertainment, and daily life. Iterative development is progressively focusing on multimodality, all-in-one solutions, and Agents, aiming to enhance and perfect the user experience and meet personalized needs. Application End: AI is being widely applied in various sub-sectors of the media industry, such as film/television, advertising/marketing, and gaming, thereby enhancing content production efficiency, reducing content production costs, and facilitating industry transformation. 1) Gaming: Leveraging AI technology, developers are achieving innovation in three core scenarios: Intelligent NPCs and dynamic plot generation endow NPCs with intelligent decision-making capabilities, allowing plots to evolve dynamically in real-time based on player interaction, greatly enriching game narrative and player immersion; Automated generation of assets like scenes utilizes AI algorithms to rapidly produce high-precision game scenes, props, etc., significantly reducing manual creation time, lowering development costs, and boosting content output efficiency; Automated testing platforms use AI to simulate vast numbers of player behaviors, automatically detecting game bugs and performance issues, substantially increasing test coverage and efficiency, and ensuring game quality. 2) Advertising/Marketing: Within the new search ecosystem deeply penetrated and led by AI technology, the traditional marketing model, which centers on click-through rates and traffic volume as key metrics, is facing risks of systemic failure, with its viability continuously narrowing. The core logic is that the fundamental demand for user information acquisition has shifted; the endpoint of attention is no longer a jump to a traditional webpage link but rather the precise answer directly generated by the AI model. This fundamentally reconstructs the logic of traffic reach and conversion funnels that traditional marketing relies on. In this context, the Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) model emerges as a key path to break through the industry's predicament and achieve marketing effectiveness. This model systematically reconstructs the form of information presentation and the logic of reach, creating synergistic force from three core dimensions—efficiency, authority, and influence—to build a comprehensive and sustainable marketing competitive advantage, offering a viable solution for the industry's marketing transformation in the new AI search era. 3) Film/Television: AI empowers various stages of film and television production, significantly reducing the cost of realizing creative ideas. "Manju," a new form of online audio-visual content involving video adaptation and re-creation based on graphic materials like comics, online literature, and emojis, has garnered market attention. Facilitated by the cost-reduction and efficiency-gains of AI technology and the IP openness of leading platforms, AI-generated "Manju" has become an emerging sector.
Risk factors include changes in the policy environment; slower-than-expected consumption recovery; intensifying market competition; slower-than-expected application of innovative technologies; risks of AI application infringement; and risks of goodwill impairment.