GF Securities released a research report stating that, based on wholesale prices, transaction prices for Moutai declined sequentially during the post-holiday off-season, while prices for Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao remained relatively stable. Regarding inventory age, premium baijiu generally maintains fresher stock, whereas mid-range and sub-premium segments carry older inventory. After a four-year adjustment phase, the baijiu sector is expected to enter a new development cycle by 2026. Some mass-market product segments have already stabilized in 2025. Looking ahead to 2026, industry prices per ton are anticipated to rise moderately, with opportunities seen in individual stocks driven by new products and distribution channels.
Key viewpoints from GF Securities are as follows:
Feedback from Baijiu Forums: Industry contraction trends show a winner-takes-all dynamic where price cuts drive volume. Wang Zhaocheng, Chairman of Shengchu Group, indicated that the baijiu industry will remain under pressure in the first half of this year, with marginal improvements expected in the second half. He highlighted four current contraction trends: (1) premium and sub-premium markets exhibit a "winner-takes-all" pattern through price reductions to boost volume; (2) distilleries are focusing on core products and markets while cutting costs and improving efficiency; (3) channels are shifting toward direct consumer engagement and closer producer-distributor integration; (4) brand promotion via short-form videos is becoming a new trend.
Hotel Exhibition Feedback: Lower foot traffic year-over-year, with health-oriented and lower-alcohol baijiu gaining traction. The recent Sugar & Wine Fair hotel exhibition was relatively quiet, with noticeably fewer visitors compared to last year, reflecting the industry's ongoing deep adjustment. In terms of aroma types, strong, sauce, and light aroma baijiu were evenly represented. A trend toward health-focused and lower-alcohol products was evident, with increased participation from brands producing herbal and wellness liquors, some targeting younger consumers with low-alcohol options. In the beer section, tea-flavored beers decreased, replaced by fruit-infused and regional specialty beers, while exhibitors' minimum prices gradually rose.
Baijiu Channel Feedback: Divergent Spring Festival sales performance, with consumption scenes yet to fully recover. During the fair, exchanges with distributors of Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, and major Hunan merchants revealed that premium brands saw stronger sales velocity during the Spring Festival. However, government and business consumption occasions have not fully recovered. A major Hunan distributor reported improved cash flow and sentiment among dealers for premium baijiu during the holiday, but the sub-premium and mid-to-low-end segments are expected to remain in a consolidation phase.
Chengdu Field Research: Strong premium baijiu sales during Spring Festival, stable wholesale prices in off-season. Visits to over ten tobacco and liquor stores in Chengdu indicated that premium baijiu outperformed in sales during the holiday, while mid-range and sub-premium products faced pressure. Among premium brands, standard Moutai and Wuliangye saw relatively better sales. In the mid-range segment, Tequ 60 moved well. Post-holiday, Moutai's transaction prices declined sequentially, while Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao held steady. Premium baijiu inventory is generally fresh, whereas mid-range and sub-premium stock is older.
Seasonings: Post-holiday sales improve with clear Matthew effect. For soy sauce, Haitian and Qianhe dominate distribution, with Haitian expanding functional soy sauce offerings. Inventory age is healthy during peak season, and promotions in hypermarkets have improved sales year-over-year. For pickled mustard tuber, Wujiang and Jixiangju lead regionally, with Wujiang regaining market share despite slightly older inventory. Hot pot base sales were strong post-holiday, with Haorenjia performing well in its regions. Inventory age is normal, and bundled promotions intensified, notably for Hou Hot Pot base, which saw increased distribution and good sales. Other compound seasonings showed diversified categories and improved sales.
Risk warnings include weaker-than-expected macroeconomic conditions, slower recovery in consumer spending power, and food safety incidents.