A report from CICC notes robust growth in passenger traffic during the first week of the 2026 Spring Festival travel season and strong advance bookings for flights and hotels, indicating promising leisure and tourism demand释放 during the extended holiday period. Furthermore, against a backdrop of stabilizing or recovering demand in the consumer services sector (e.g., duty-free) and moderating competition with stabilizing supply-side dynamics (e.g., hotels, coffee, select restaurants), the report maintains a positive outlook on high-quality leading companies achieving price recovery or same-store sales improvements. Key points from CICC are as follows:
Travel: Optimistic on Leisure Tourism Demand During Longest Spring Festival According to data from the Ministry of Transport and the firm's calculations, cross-regional passenger traffic in the first 7 days of the Spring Festival travel period (Feb 2-Feb 7) increased approximately 2.3% year-on-year. Breakdowns show railway, road, waterway, and civil aviation passenger volumes grew by +0.7%, +2.3%, +15.8%, and +5.9% year-on-year, respectively. Estimates from Flight Master project a 5.3% year-on-year increase in civil aviation passenger traffic during the 40-day 2026 Spring Festival travel period. Data from TravelSky shows that as of January 29th, average daily Spring Festival flight bookings were up 16% year-on-year, with inbound and outbound flight bookings showing a slight year-on-year increase.
Duty-Free: Strong Year-on-Year Hainan Tourist Numbers During 2026 Spring Festival; Low Sales Base in 2025 For tourist numbers, due to the low base from the same period last year and benefits from Hainan Free Trade Port policy dividends, Hainan flight bookings for the 2026 Spring Festival holiday showed impressive year-on-year performance. According to Qunar data, as of January 13th, Spring Festival holiday bookings for Sanya and Haikou flights surged by 90% and 120% year-on-year, respectively. Data from Haikou Customs shows the average daily sales of offshore duty-free during the 2025 Spring Festival were 260 million yuan, down 16% year-on-year, indicating a low base from the previous year.
Hotels: Spring Festival 2026 Hotel Bookings Increase Year-on-Year; 2025 Period Was a Low Base Based on Qunar data, as of January 14th, hotel bookings in popular cities for the 2026 Spring Festival holiday increased 70% year-on-year. The report notes the 2025 Spring Festival holiday provided a low base for comparison (STR data indicates RevPAR for the mainland China hotel industry during the 8-day 2025 Spring Festival holiday decreased 12% year-on-year, with ADR down 3% and occupancy down 7%).
Dining: Spring Festival Peak Season Expected to Boost Consumption The Ministry of Commerce and other bodies issued the "2026 'Happy Spring Shopping' Special Holiday Activity Plan," suggesting attention on the Spring Festival performance of certain restaurant brands (Yum China's same-store sales saw a slight year-on-year increase during the 2025 Spring Festival). Activities such as holiday "Qianwen" freebie cards are also expected to boost demand for freshly made beverages and dining.
Valuation and Recommendations: The report recommends Luckin Coffee, Atour Lifestyle Holdings, Gu Ming, Huazhu Group, China Tourism Group Duty Free, Mixue Bingcheng, and Yum China. It suggests monitoring Haidilao, Jiuju Nine, BGHE, Xiaocaiyuan, DPC Dash, Cha Ba Dao, and Shaanxi Tourism.
Risk Warning: Consumer spending recovery weaker than expected; intensification of competitive landscape; companies failing to enhance management capabilities.