Abstract

D-Wave Quantum Inc. will post results on February 26, 2026 Pre-Market, with the market looking for continued top-line growth and a narrower per-share loss versus last year as investors weigh revenue mix, margin resilience, and guidance against a backdrop of accelerating customer adoption.

Market Forecast

Based on company-compiled projections for the current quarter, D-Wave Quantum Inc. is expected to deliver revenue of 3.77 million, implying 59.57% year-over-year growth, with adjusted EPS estimated at -0.07, reflecting a 3.50% year-over-year improvement. Forecasts do not include a gross margin or net profit margin figure; however, EBIT is projected at -22.92 million, indicating a 67.82% year-over-year deterioration in operating result despite the revenue increase.

Within the company’s revenue mix, system sales, quantum computing services, and professional services remain the key pillars, and the mix implies a balance of recurring and project-driven revenue that could support long-run margin durability if services scale further. The most promising segment appears to be quantum computing services, which delivered 1.38 million last quarter; overall revenue rose 99.95% year-over-year, suggesting broad-based demand momentum into this quarter.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, D-Wave Quantum Inc. recorded revenue of 3.74 million, up 99.95% year-over-year, a gross profit margin of 71.38%, a GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of 140.00 million, an estimated net profit margin of -3,745.00%, and adjusted EPS of -0.05, an improvement of 37.50% year-over-year.

A notable highlight was a revenue outperformance versus the company-compiled estimate, with a positive surprise of 0.71 million, while adjusted EPS topped expectations by approximately $0.02 per share. Main business revenue was led by system sales at 1.84 million, followed by quantum computing services at 1.38 million and professional services at 0.48 million; total revenue nearly doubled year-over-year, underscoring solid traction across the core offerings.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main commercial revenue trajectory and mix

D-Wave Quantum Inc.’s revenue base remains diversified across system sales, quantum computing services, and professional services, with the last quarter’s distribution of 1.84 million, 1.38 million, and 0.48 million, respectively. The current-quarter revenue forecast of 3.77 million, up 59.57% year-over-year, implies that management expects sustained demand across these lines even as quarter-to-quarter deal timing can create variability, especially for hardware or complex implementation projects. The consistent gross margin level of 71.38% in the prior period indicates that the business can maintain a favorable contribution profile at today’s scale, supporting the case for incremental operating leverage over time if volume continues to rise.

Given the mix, a key determinant for the print will be whether recurring and usage-based revenue within services keeps pace with the systems and professional services components. A higher contribution from quantum computing services tends to align with steadier cash conversion and margin durability, while large system deliveries are more lumpy but powerful revenue drivers. This quarter’s consensus revenue target, combined with a modest year-over-year improvement in adjusted EPS to -0.07, suggests the market anticipates a broadly similar mix with incremental efficiency gains from scale and cost discipline, even as continued investment keeps EBIT negative.

Quantum computing services momentum

Quantum computing services, at 1.38 million last quarter, remains a central pillar for sustained growth because it can compound through usage, renewals, and multi-use-case expansion within existing accounts. The nearly doubling of company-level revenue year-over-year last quarter implies that customer engagement and workloads increased meaningfully, which, if maintained, would support the 59.57% year-over-year growth embedded in this quarter’s forecast. Investors will be sensitive to management’s commentary on service utilization, cohort expansion, and any cross-sell into adjacent professional services that could lift near-term revenue while expanding long-term customer value.

For this quarter, the persistence of high gross margins alongside growing services revenue would be a constructive signal that software and cloud access components continue to offset the dilutive effects of hardware or large customized projects. Conversely, a heavier skew toward system sales could elevate total revenue but create a different profile for margin and visibility. The forecasted adjusted EPS improvement of 3.50% year-over-year alongside robust top-line growth implies that the market expects services to contribute proportionally this quarter and for operating expenses to stay aligned with growth initiatives without markedly increasing the loss per share.

Stock-price swing factors this quarter

Three catalysts are likely to shape the share-price reaction: revenue mix, margin trajectory, and expense discipline. If revenue lands near 3.77 million with a healthy services contribution, the durability narrative would be reinforced and could carry more weight than a single-quarter variation in system sales timing. Margin commentary will be closely watched, particularly relative to the prior quarter’s 71.38% gross margin; maintaining a similar level would signal that pricing, utilization, and cost efficiencies remain intact as revenue scales.

On profitability, the EBIT estimate of -22.92 million reflects ongoing investment in go-to-market, product development, and customer delivery, so investors will look for signals that operating intensity is translating into pipeline expansion and faster conversion. Any evidence that the company is improving unit economics—such as rising gross margin dollars outpacing operating expense growth—could mitigate concerns tied to the forecasted 67.82% year-over-year deterioration in EBIT. The adjusted EPS estimate of -0.07, representing a 3.50% year-over-year improvement, sets a more modest bar for bottom-line progress this quarter, and the stock’s initial reaction will likely hinge on how revenue and gross margin compare with expectations and whether management’s outlook implies sustained growth into the next quarter.

Execution on deals and delivery timing

The prior quarter’s 0.71 million revenue surprise demonstrates the company can execute above near-term expectations when deal timing and delivery align. Heading into this quarter, investors will parse management’s update on bookings and conversion speed, as these factors often influence whether revenue skews toward hardware, services, or a blended mix at quarter-end. The magnitude of last quarter’s year-over-year growth—99.95%—sets a high comparison base, making the projected 59.57% year-over-year increase a tougher, but still achievable, target if the late-quarter close pattern holds.

Delivery dynamics may also shape working-capital and margin optics; completing system milestones can drive firm revenue recognition but sometimes requires ramped professional services, which may compress gross margin temporarily. In contrast, higher services utilization typically supports gross margin stability and adds predictability. This quarter, even modest over-delivery in high-margin services would amplify gross profit dollars meaningfully at the company’s current scale and could be a positive surprise offsetting heavier operating expenses.

Gross margin resilience and cost profile

The prior quarter’s gross margin of 71.38% offers a solid baseline for assessing the sustainability of the margin structure. If management confirms that pricing discipline and usage growth continue to support margins in the 70% range, the market may assign more confidence to the scalability of the model as revenue grows. That dynamic, combined with a revenue beat, would likely be read as a constructive sign—even if EBIT remains significantly negative—because gross profit expansion is a prerequisite for operating leverage.

On the cost side, the EBIT estimate of -22.92 million indicates that operating expenses remain elevated as the company scales its commercial and technical resources. The question for investors is not whether near-term losses persist—they will—but whether loss intensity is buying acceleration in high-margin revenue. If adjusted EPS comes in line at -0.07 and revenue exceeds 3.77 million, it would suggest early signs of improved efficiency, whereas a shortfall on revenue with stable or declining EPS would imply heavier cost absorption.

Guidance quality and visibility into the next quarter

Because last quarter demonstrated near-100% year-over-year revenue growth, investors will pay close attention to management’s qualitative and quantitative commentary on pipeline conversion for the next period. Clear expressions of revenue visibility, such as contracted backlog coverage and expected usage trends, could help the market gauge whether this quarter’s high growth is repeatable. If management guides to a sequential revenue uplift or highlights additive drivers like incremental customer deployments, it could bolster sentiment around the durability of the 59.57% year-over-year revenue target.

Conversely, comments that emphasize deal timing variability without offsetting signals on services usage might lead investors to discount the short-term run-rate until more consistent patterns emerge. The way management frames gross margin drivers—mix, pricing, and efficiencies—will be just as important as the absolute margin result this quarter. A coherent path that links expanding services activity to stable or improving margin, paired with prudent expense growth, would underpin the case for compounding gross profit dollars and eventual operating leverage.

Analyst Opinions

Among the views collected between January 1, 2026 and February 19, 2026, the ratio of bullish to bearish opinions is 2:0, with all identified opinions on the bullish side. A well-followed analyst at Mizuho Securities, Vijay Rakesh, reiterated a Buy rating on D-Wave Quantum Inc. in January 2026 and cited a $46.00 price target, reflecting conviction that the company can continue scaling revenue while incrementally improving per-share results versus the prior year. The concentration of positive ratings in this period suggests that institutional analysts expect the company to at least meet, and possibly exceed, its top-line forecast of 3.77 million with a supportive revenue mix.

Analysts supportive of the stock generally point to a constructive blend of near-term growth and long-run margin potential. The prior quarter’s nearly 100% year-over-year revenue growth and 71.38% gross margin provided evidence that the commercial model can deliver both volume and attractive contribution, and this quarter’s 59.57% year-over-year revenue growth target keeps that narrative intact. On profitability, while EBIT is expected to remain significantly negative at -22.92 million, the projected 3.50% year-over-year improvement in adjusted EPS to -0.07 aligns with the view that scale and mix can translate into incremental bottom-line progress even before operating leverage fully takes hold.

From an expectations perspective, the bullish camp appears focused on execution signals: stable or stronger gross margin versus the prior quarter, evidence of expanding services usage within existing accounts, and healthy bookings that underpin the next quarter’s revenue conversion. The fact that last quarter’s revenue outpaced estimates by 0.71 million offers a precedent for potential upside when deal timing is favorable; if that pattern repeats alongside steady services contribution, a positive reaction would be justified under the prevailing analyst framework. Conversely, if revenue meets the 3.77 million target but the mix tilts toward lower-margin components and adjusted EPS fails to show year-over-year improvement, the bullish thesis could be tested in the near term.

In summary, with a consensus framing that emphasizes a 59.57% year-over-year revenue increase and modest progress on adjusted EPS, analyst sentiment entering the print is firmly positive. The majority view is that D-Wave Quantum Inc. will demonstrate ongoing commercial traction, supported by a balanced revenue mix and resilient gross margins, even as the company continues to invest and absorb operating losses. A combination of revenue that aligns with or exceeds 3.77 million and margin commentary that signals durability should validate the bullish stance for this quarter, while any incremental color on pipeline, conversion rates, and services adoption will shape how quickly the market looks for further operating leverage in subsequent periods.