According to a research report from GTHT Securities, the implementation of policies, a recovery in global mergers and acquisitions, and positive clinical data have collectively boosted risk appetite in the innovative drug industry. By 2026, key data validations are expected for PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibodies and Pan-RAS therapies in the oncology field. The weight loss and metabolic market is focusing on the expansion of the self-pay market and advancements in small nucleic acid technology. The autoimmune disease area is concentrating on proof-of-concept data for next-generation antibody platforms, while the central nervous system (CNS) field revolves around the earlier intervention of Aβ monoclonal antibodies and breakthroughs in delivery technology. The main viewpoints of GTHT Securities are as follows:
Macro and Industry Environment: Policy Implementation and M&A Recovery Lead to Significant Repair in Risk Appetite With the phased resolution of policy uncertainties, the continuous release of significant clinical data, and a rebound in global M&A activity, the U.S. biotech and pharmaceutical sectors showed notable strength in the fourth quarter of 2025. Investor sentiment towards innovative drug investments for 2026 has improved markedly. Around the JPM conference, BD transactions by multinational corporations were highly active, with the proportion and caliber of Chinese innovative drug assets in these deals increasing, indicating their growing attractiveness within the global innovation system.
Oncology: Rising Certainty for PD-1/VEGF Bispecific Antibodies; Pan-RAS Approaches Key Validation Window In oncology, PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibodies have progressed from "mechanism validation" to a stage of "clinical and industrial synergy." Several multinational corporations are advancing multiple global Phase III trials simultaneously in high-value indications like NSCLC. Approvals and data readouts within the year are expected to be key catalysts. Concurrently, Pan-RAS precision therapy is systematically advancing first-line/second-line and combination regimens for pancreatic cancer and NSCLC, with crucial Phase III data anticipated in 2026, marking the entry of this approach into a substantial validation phase.
Weight Loss and Metabolism: Focus on Self-Pay Market Expansion; Small Nucleic Acids Drive Treatment Paradigm Upgrade Against the backdrop of limited insurance coverage and high out-of-pocket costs for obesity indications in the U.S., the self-pay population is becoming a significant source of market expansion for GLP-1 drugs. Pharmaceutical companies are actively improving accessibility through direct-to-consumer platforms, pricing adjustments, and multi-channel distribution to unlock demand elasticity. The small nucleic acid approach to weight loss represents more of a mid-term upgrade variable. Its potential for combination with GLP-1s in improving weight loss quality and fat distribution may drive the evolution of weight loss treatment from "single-hormone driven" to "multi-pathway regulated."
Autoimmune Diseases: Concentration Risk Highlighted for MNC Blockbusters; 2026 POC Data Presents Structural Opportunities The autoimmune businesses of multinational corporations rely heavily on a few blockbuster products, with revenue concentration risks becoming apparent due to patent cycles and intensifying competition. Incremental opportunities primarily stem from two paths: First, next-generation antibody platforms (bispecifics/multispecifics, B-cell depletion, etc.) will see密集 proof-of-concept data readouts in 2026, potentially catalyzing a new wave of BD deals and asset revaluation. Second, the trend towards oral administration is becoming clearer. The chronic nature of autoimmune diseases gives oral formulations inherent advantages in patient compliance and differentiated competition. Multiple technological routes, including BTK, TYK2/JAK, oral PROTACs, oral cyclic peptides, and PDE4 inhibitors, warrant ongoing attention.
CNS: Core Focus on Earlier Aβ mAb Intervention; BBB-Shuttle Technologies Amplify Long-Term Potential The core investment theme in the CNS field remains focused on the shift of Aβ monoclonal antibody treatment from early symptomatic populations to pre-symptomatic or preclinical Alzheimer's disease. Phase III data related to Eli Lilly's Donanemab is expected to be a key catalyst for unlocking the "early intervention" market potential. Previous data suggests that populations with low-to-medium tau pathology and earlier disease stages show advantages in both efficacy and safety windows. Simultaneously, next-generation Aβ therapies employing blood-brain barrier shuttle technologies, exemplified by Roche's Trontinemab, achieve stronger clearance and superior safety profiles at lower doses and shorter treatment durations, potentially raising the bar for AD treatment. Novel pathways like systemically administered small nucleic acids serve as complementary directions, representing more mid-to-long-term innovations in delivery methods.
Risk Disclosures: 1) Risks associated with R&D progress falling short of expectations; 2) Risks of drug sales underperforming expectations; 3) Policy risks; 4) Industry risks; 5) Other risks.