According to a research report released by CICC, the secondary residential transaction volume index for 80 cities through intermediary channels declined 10% month-on-month in September, while rising 19% year-on-year (Q3: +19%, Q2: +17%). Meanwhile, the secondary housing transaction area for 15 cities under the filing framework increased 6% month-on-month and 9% year-on-year in September (Q3: +3%, Q2: +11%).

Regarding listings, the number of secondary residential listings monitored by CICC across 130 cities increased 0.4% month-on-month in September (August: +0.4% MoM), maintaining modest growth momentum. Looking ahead, considering that Q4 transaction volume will face higher year-on-year comparison bases while secondary housing supply continues to rise, both housing transaction volumes and price trends may face continued pressure in Q4. There is an urgent need for policies with lasting improvements to supply-demand dynamics, such as existing housing inventory acquisition and urban village redevelopment, to be effectively implemented.

CICC's main observations include:

**September Secondary Housing Market Transaction Volume and Pricing Continue Q2 Trends**

For transaction volumes, the secondary residential transaction volume index for 80 cities through intermediary channels declined 10% month-on-month in September, while increasing 19% year-on-year (Q3: +19%, Q2: +17%). The secondary housing transaction area for 15 cities under filing framework rose 6% month-on-month and 9% year-on-year in September (Q3: +3%, Q2: +11%).

Regarding transaction prices, CICC's homogeneous secondary residential transaction price index declined 1.7% month-on-month in September (Q3 monthly average MoM: -1.7%, Q2 monthly average MoM: -1.4%). The negotiation discount space increased 25 basis points month-on-month to 8.91%. Overall, both transaction volume and pricing performance in September's secondary housing market continued the relatively weak trends since Q2.

**September Secondary Housing Listings Continue Marginal Growth, Seller Price Expectations Remain Conservative**

For listings, the number of secondary residential listings monitored by CICC across 130 cities increased 0.4% month-on-month in September (August: +0.4% MoM), maintaining continuous modest growth.

Regarding listing prices, the homogeneous listing price index for key cities declined 1.5% month-on-month in September (Q3 monthly average MoM: -1.3%, Q2 monthly average MoM: -1.2%). The average price adjustment magnitude for existing price-adjusted properties was -5.24% (August: -5.03%), exceeding the market average levels of Q2 and Q3 last year for two consecutive months, indicating that seller expectations continue to trend conservative.

Looking forward, considering that Q4 transaction volume year-on-year comparison bases will rise while secondary housing supply continues increasing, both housing transaction volumes and price trends in Q4 may still face certain pressure. There is urgent need for policies with sustained improvement effects on supply-demand structure, such as existing housing inventory acquisition and urban village redevelopment, to be effectively implemented.

**September Housing Rental Declines Widen Month-on-Month, Rental Yield Continues Rising**

CICC's homogeneous listing rental index declined 0.8% month-on-month in September (August: -0.5%), while the vacancy period remained essentially flat at 2.12 months (August: 2.11 months). Due to declining listing prices, the rental yield continued rising 2 basis points to 2.33% in September.

**Investment Recommendations**

Focus on investment opportunities in real estate and property management sectors. Continue to be optimistic about the risk-return profile of the real estate sector over 3-6 months. Beyond fundamentally solid targets with strong earnings quality such as CHINA RES LAND (01109), C&D INTL GROUP (01908), Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.,Ltd. (002244.SZ), and China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.,Ltd. (001979.SZ), considering potential liquidity condition optimization, moderate allocation to undervalued targets such as GREENTOWN CHINA (03900), Seazen Holdings Co.,Ltd. (601155.SH), and Poly Property Group Co.,Limited (00119) may be appropriate.

For diversified sectors, continue recommending stocks with leading peer performance growth or attractive dividend yields, including CHINA RES MIXC (01209), HANG LUNG PPT (00101), and SWIREPROPERTIES (01972).

**Risk Factors**

Industry fundamentals deteriorating beyond expectations; policy implementation falling short of expectations.