Shares of leading lithium producers advanced significantly in Hong Kong trading. Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rose 6.82% to HK$83.8, while Tianqi Lithium (09696) increased 5.01% to HK$56.55 by the time of writing.

The rally follows reports of a major fire that broke out late on the 15th at a refinery in Geelong, Victoria, Australia. As of the morning of the 16th, the fire was still burning, although no casualties have been reported. This refinery is one of only two remaining local refineries in Australia.

Analysis from CICC Wealth Futures suggests that, based on previous market sentiment among lithium carbonate bulls, this incident could potentially trigger a significant rise in lithium prices. However, with lithium prices already at elevated levels, the market cannot rule out speculative activity, and the risks of chasing the rally are considerable. Caution is advised.

Huatai Futures pointed out that Chinese-owned companies in Zimbabwe have now obtained export qualifications, raising expectations for a short-term increase in lithium ore exports from the country. Many companies continued production during the export ban, and with the ban lifted, inventory releases into the market could accelerate. In the long term, the construction cycle for lithium sulfate plants is lengthy, indicating that supply-side disruptions may persist.

Additionally, the Yichun Four Mines have published an assessment report on mining right benefits. Starting potentially in May, operations may enter a phase involving renewed environmental impact assessments and possible production halts. If these shutdowns are prolonged, lithium ore supply from the Yichun region could be affected.